In recent years, the importance attached to the concept of volatility has increased and become a phenomenon frequently encountered in every field ranging from financial markets to macroeconomic indicators. In this study, inflation data obtained from CPI index for the period of 1994:01–2013:12 in Turkey was used to determine the best representative of the inflation uncertainty. To realize this, both symmetric and asymmetric GARCH-type models were employed. Since there are many factors that may lead to structural change within the economic course of Turkey, a structural break in the series has first been investigated. By administering Bai-Perron structural break test, two different break points both in mean and variance have been detected to be in February 2002 and in June 2001, respectively. The inclusion of those break points to the related equations, appropriate forecasting models were projected. Moreover it was found that, while in the periods prior to the break in both variance and mean the inflation itself was the reason for inflation uncertainty, following the dates of the break, the relationship changed bidirectionally. In the meantime, when the series was taken as a whole without considering the break, bidirectional causality relationship was also detected in the series.

Turkey has been experiencing various types of migration flows since the foundation of the Republic in 1923. Migration of ethnic Turks of Bulgaria in 1989 is one of the important immigration waves in size and in nature as well. More than 350,000 Bulgarian Turks refusing to assimilation policies of the Bulgarian Communist Party (BCP) fled to Turkey in 1989. Behind this triggering political reason, there were deeper sources of this migration, such as economic, social, institutional and cultural exclusion/inclusion problems in Bulgaria. Furthermore, most of the Turks of Bulgaria kept the idea of migrating to their "imagined motherland' someday. The same migrants have been experiencing integration/exclusion problems where they settled in Turkey, too. This paper attempts to open a conceptual debate by using concepts of 'mixed migration", 'accidental diaspora' and 'voluntary exiles' to overcome the 'forced and voluntary' dichotomy in this literature, rather than analysing all the dimensions in detail. Hence, the multiple dimensions of this migration will be tried to be understood via the perceptions of migrants.

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