Take-down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Heritability and polygenic predictionIn the EUR sample, the SNP-based heritability (h 2 SNP ) (that is, the proportion of variance in liability attributable to all measured SNPs)

This is the submitted version of a work that was accepted for publication in: The Lancet Psychiatry. A definitive version was subsequently published in The Lancet Psychiatry 2.11 (2015), DOI: 10.1016/S2215-0366(15)00332-6Mental and brain disorders represent the greatest health burden to Europe—not only for directly affected individuals, but also for their caregivers and the wider society. They incur substantial economic costs through direct (and indirect) health-care and welfare spending, and via productivity losses, all of which substantially affect European development. Funding for research to mitigate these effects lags far behind the cost of mental and brain disorders to society. Here, we describe a comprehensive, coordinated mental health research agenda for Europe and worldwide. This agenda was based on systematic reviews of published work and consensus decision making by multidisciplinary scientific experts and affected stakeholders (more than 1000 in total): individuals with mental health problems and their families, health-care workers, policy makers, and funders. We generated six priorities that will, over the next 5–10 years, help to close the biggest gaps in mental health research in Europe, and in turn overcome the substantial challenges caused by mental disordersThe research leading to these results has received funding from the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7, 2007–13) under grant agreement number 282586, and from the National R&D Internationalisation Programme of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology under Reference ACI-PRO-2011- 1080. TW and GT acknowledge financial support from the UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre and Dementia Unit awarded to South London and Maudsley National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust in partnership with King’s College London. GT is supported by the NIHR Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care South London at King’s College London Foundation Trust. TW is supported by an NIHR Senior Investigator Award

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Given the global burden of psychotic disorders, the identification of patients with early-onset psychosis (EOP; that is, onset before the age of 18) at higher risk of adverse outcome should be a priority. A systematic search of Pubmed, Embase, and PsycInfo (1980 through August 2014) was performed to identify longitudinal observational studies assessing correlates and/or predictors of clinical, functional, cognitive, and biological outcomes in EOP. Seventy-five studies were included in the review. Using multivariate models, the most replicated predictors of worse clinical, functional, cognitive, and biological outcomes in EOP were premorbid difficulties and symptom severity (especially of negative symptoms) at baseline. Longer duration of untreated psychosis (DUP) predicted worse clinical, functional, and cognitive outcomes. Higher risk of attempting suicide was predicted by greater severity of psychotic illness and of depressive symptoms at the first episode of psychosis. Age at onset and sex were not found to be relevant predictors of outcome in most multivariate models, whereas studies using bivariate analyses yielded inconsistent results. Lower intelligence quotient at baseline predicted lower insight at follow-up, worse functional outcomes, and a diagnostic outcome of schizophrenia. Biological predictors of outcome in EOP have been little studied and have not been replicated. Lower levels of antioxidants at baseline predicted greater brain volume changes and worse cognitive functioning at follow-up, whereas neuroimaging markers such as regional cortical thickness and gray matter volume at baseline predicted remission and better insight at follow-up, respectively. EOP patients with poorer premorbid adjustment and prominent negative symptoms at initial presentation are at risk of poor outcome. They should therefore be the target of careful monitoring and more intensive interventions to address whether the disease course can be modified in this especially severely affected group. Early intervention strategies to reduce DUP may also improve outcome in EOP.

IMPORTANCE Antipsychotics are used increasingly in youth for nonpsychotic and off-label indications, but cardiometabolic adverse effects and (especially) type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk have raised additional concern. OBJECTIVE To assess T2DM risk associated with antipsychotic treatment in youth. DATA SOURCES Systematic literature search of PubMed and PsycINFO without language restrictions from database inception until May 4, 2015. Data analyses were performed in July 2015, and additional analyses were added in November 2015. STUDY SELECTION Longitudinal studies reporting on T2DM incidence in youth 2 to 24 years old exposed to antipsychotics for at least 3 months. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS Two independent investigators extracted study-level data for a random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression of T2DM risk. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The coprimary outcomes were study-defined T2DM, expressed as cumulative T2DM risk or as T2DM incidence rate per patient-years. Secondary outcomes included the comparison of the coprimary outcomes in antipsychotic-treated youth with psychiatric controls not receiving antipsychotics or with healthy controls RESULTS Thirteen studies were included in the meta-analysis, including 185 105 youth exposed to antipsychotics and 310 438 patient-years. The mean (SD) age of patients was 14.1 (2.1) years, and 59.5% were male. The mean (SD) follow-up was 1.7 (2.3) years. Among them, 7 studies included psychiatric controls (1 342 121 patients and 2 071 135 patient-years), and 8 studies included healthy controls (298 803 patients and 463 084 patient-years). Antipsychotic-exposed youth had a cumulative T2DM risk of 5.72 (95% CI, 3.45-9.48; P < .001) per 1000 patients. The incidence rate was 3.09 (95% CI, 2.35-3.82; P < .001) cases per 1000 patient-years. Compared with healthy controls, cumulative T2DM risk (odds ratio [OR], 2.58; 95% CI, 1.56-4.24; P < .0001) and incidence rate ratio (IRR) (IRR, 3.02; 95% CI, 1.71-5.35; P < .0001) were significantly greater in antipsychotic-exposed youth. Similarly, compared with psychiatric controls, antipsychotic-exposed youth had significantly higher cumulative T2DM risk (OR, 2.09; 95% CI, 1.50-52.90; P < .0001) and IRR (IRR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.31-2.44; P < .0001). In multivariable meta-regression analyses of 10 studies, greater cumulative T2DM risk was associated with longer follow-up (P < .001), olanzapine prescription (P < .001), and male sex (P = .002) (r 2 = 1.00, P < .001). Greater T2DM incidence was associated with second-generation antipsychotic prescription (P Յ .050) and less autism spectrum disorder diagnosis (P = .048) (r 2 = 0.21, P = .044). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Although T2DM seems rare in antipsychotic-exposed youth, cumulative risk and exposure-adjusted incidences and IRRs were significantly higher than in healthy controls and psychiatric controls. Olanzapine treatment and antipsychotic exposure time were the main modifiable risk factors for T2DM development in antipsychotic-exposed youth. Antipsychotics should be used judiciously an...

Patients with schizophrenia or other psychoses showed greater loss of GM volume and increase of CSF in the frontal lobe relative to controls. Progressive changes were more evident in patients with schizophrenia than those with bipolar disorder. These changes in specific brain volumes after onset of psychotic symptoms may be related to markers of poorer prognosis.

Intervention strategies in adolescents at ultra high-risk (UHR) for psychosis are promising for reducing conversion to overt illness, but have only limited impact on functional outcome. Recent studies suggest that cognition does not further decline during the UHR stage. As social and cognitive impairments typically develop before the first psychotic episode and even years before the UHR stage, prevention should also start much earlier in the groups at risk for schizophrenia and other psychiatric disorders. Early intervention strategies could aim to improve stress resilience, optimize brain maturation, and prevent or alleviate adverse environmental circumstances. These strategies should urgently be tested for efficacy: the prevalence of ~1% implies that yearly ~22 in every 100,000 people develop overt symptoms of this illness, despite the fact that for many of them—e.g., children with an affected first-degree family member or carriers of specific genetic variants—increased risk was already identifiable early in life. Our current ability to recognize several risk groups at an early age not only provides an opportunity, but also implies a clinical imperative to act. Time is pressing to investigate preventive interventions in high-risk children to mitigate or prevent the development of schizophrenia and related psychiatric disorders.

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