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Climate change (CC) has a high impact on hydrological processes which calls for reliable projections of CC hydrological impacts at large scales. However, there are several challenges in hydrological modelling at large scales. Large-scale models are often not adapted and evaluated at regional scale due to high computation time requirements or lack of information on human interactions, such as dam operations and irrigation practices at local scale. In this study, we present a regionalised methodology that uses a hydrological mass balance calibration (HMBC) and global datasets to represent reservoir and irrigation practices and apply these to a SWAT+ model for Southern Africa. We evaluate the influence of HMBC and the representation on irrigation and reservoirs on model performance and climate projections. We propose a generalised implementation of reservoirs using global datasets and decision tables to represent irrigation and reservoir management. Results show that inclusion of irrigation, reservoirs and HMBC leads to improved simulation of discharge and evapotranspiration with fewer iterations than a full parameter calibration. There is a substantial difference between projections made by the regionalised model and default model when looking at local impacts. We conclude that large-scale hydrological studies that involve local analysis and spatial mapping of results benefit from HMBC and representation of management practices. The proposed methodology can be scaled up and improve overall projections made by global models.

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In SWAT and SWAT+ models, the variations in hydrological processes are represented by Hydrological Response Units (HRUs). In the default models, agricultural land cover is represented by a single growing cycle. However, agricultural land use, especially in African cultivated catchments, typically consists of several cropping seasons, following dry and wet seasonal patterns, and are hence incorrectly represented in SWAT and SWAT+ default models. In this paper, we propose a procedure to incorporate agricultural seasonal land-use dynamics by (1) mapping land-use trajectories instead of static land-cover maps and (2) linking these trajectories to agricultural management settings. This approach was tested in SWAT and SWAT+ models of Usa catchment in Tanzania that is intensively cultivated by implementing dominant dynamic trajectories. Our results were evaluated with remote-sensing observations for Leaf Area Index (LAI), which showed that a single growing cycle did not well represent vegetation dynamics. A better agreement was obtained after implementing seasonal land-use dynamics for cultivated HRUs. It was concluded that the representation of seasonal land-use dynamics through trajectory implementation can lead to improved temporal patterns of LAI in default models. The SWAT+ model had higher flexibility in representing agricultural practices, using decision tables, and by being able to represent mixed cropping cultivations.

Abstract. To date, most regional and global hydrological models either ignore the representation of cropland or consider crop cultivation in a simplistic way or in abstract terms without any management practices. Yet, the water balance of cultivated areas is strongly influenced by applied management practices (e.g. planting, irrigation, fertilization, and harvesting). The SWAT+ (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model represents agricultural land by default in a generic way, where the start of the cropping season is driven by accumulated heat units. However, this approach does not work for tropical and subtropical regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, where crop growth dynamics are mainly controlled by rainfall rather than temperature. In this study, we present an approach on how to incorporate crop phenology using decision tables and global datasets of rainfed and irrigated croplands with the associated cropping calendar and fertilizer applications in a regional SWAT+ model for northeastern Africa. We evaluate the influence of the crop phenology representation on simulations of leaf area index (LAI) and evapotranspiration (ET) using LAI remote sensing data from Copernicus Global Land Service (CGLS) and WaPOR (Water Productivity through Open access of Remotely sensed derived data) ET data, respectively. Results show that a representation of crop phenology using global datasets leads to improved temporal patterns of LAI and ET simulations, especially for regions with a single cropping cycle. However, for regions with multiple cropping seasons, global phenology datasets need to be complemented with local data or remote sensing data to capture additional cropping seasons. In addition, the improvement of the cropping season also helps to improve soil erosion estimates, as the timing of crop cover controls erosion rates in the model. With more realistic growing seasons, soil erosion is largely reduced for most agricultural hydrologic response units (HRUs), which can be considered as a move towards substantial improvements over previous estimates. We conclude that regional and global hydrological models can benefit from improved representations of crop phenology and the associated management practices. Future work regarding the incorporation of multiple cropping seasons in global phenology data is needed to better represent cropping cycles in areas where they occur using regional to global hydrological models.

For almost 30 years, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been successfully implemented to address issues around various scientific subjects in the world. On the other hand, it has been reaching to the limit of potential flexibility in further development by the current structure. The new generation SWAT, dubbed SWAT+, was released recently with entirely new coding features. SWAT+ is designed to have far more advanced functions and capacities to handle challenging watershed modeling tasks for hydrologic and water quality processes. However, it is still inevitable to conduct model calibration before the SWAT+ model is applied to engineering projects and research programs. The primary goal of this study is to develop an open-source, easy-to-operate automatic calibration tool for SWAT+, dubbed IPEAT+ (Integrated Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis Tool Plus). There are four major advantages: (i) Open-source code to general users; (ii) compiled and integrated directly with SWAT+ source code as a single executable; (iii) supported by the SWAT developer group; and, (iv) built with efficient optimization technique. The coupling work between IPEAT+ and SWAT+ is fairly simple, which can be conducted by users with minor efforts. IPEAT+ will be regularly updated with the latest SWAT+ revision. If users would like to integrate IPEAT+ with various versions of SWAT+, only few lines in the SWAT+ source code are required to be updated. IPEAT+ is the first automatic calibration tool integrated with SWAT+ source code. Users can take advantage of the tool to pursue more cutting-edge and forward-thinking scientific questions.

Soil erosion is an increasingly issue worldwide, due to several factors including climate variations and humans’ activities, especially in Mediterranean ecosystems. Therefore, the aim of this paper is: (i) to quantify and to predict soil erosion rate for the baseline period (2000–2013) and a future period (2014–2027), using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in the R’Dom watershed in Morocco, based on the opportunities of Remote Sensing (RS) techniques and Geographical Information System (GIS) geospatial tools. (ii) we based on classical statistical downscaling model (SDSM) for rainfall prediction. Due to the lack of field data, the model results are validated by expert knowledge. As a result of this study, it is found that both agricultural lands and bare lands are most affected by soil erosion. Moreover, it is showed that soil erosion in the watershed was dominated by very low and low erosion. Although the area of very low erosion and low erosion continued to decrease. Hence, we hereby envisage that our contribution will provide a more complete understanding of the soil degradation in this study area and the results of this research could be a crucial reference in soil erosion studies and also may serve as a valuable guidance for watershed management strategies.

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