Island biogeography explores how biodiversity in island ecosystems arises and is maintained. The topographical complexity of islands can drive speciation by providing a diversity of niches that promote adaptive radiation and speciation. However, recent studies have argued that phylogenetic niche conservatism, combined with topographical complexity and climate change, could also promote speciation if populations are episodically fragmented into climate refugia that enable allopatric speciation. Adaptive radiation and phylogenetic niche conservatism therefore both predict that topographical complexity should encourage speciation, but they differ strongly in their inferred mechanisms. Using genetic (mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)) and morphological data, we show high species diversity (22 species) in an endemic clade of Fijian Homalictus bees, with most species restricted to highlands and frequently exhibiting narrow geographical ranges. Our results indicate that elevational niches have been conserved across most speciation events, contradicting expectations from an adaptive radiation model but concordant with phylogenetic niche conservatism. Climate cycles, topographical complexity, and niche conservatism could interact to shape island biodiversity. We argue that phylogenetic niche conservatism is an important driver of tropical island bee biodiversity but that this phylogenetic inertia also leads to major extinction risks for tropical ectotherms under future warming climates.

The 2019-2020 Australian Black Summer wildfires demonstrated that single events can have widespread and catastrophic impacts on biodiversity, causing a sudden and marked reduction in population size for many species. In such circumstances, there is a need for conservation managers to respond rapidly to implement priority remedial management actions for the most-affected species to help prevent extinctions. To date, priority responses have been biased towards high-profile taxa with substantial information bases. Here, we demonstrate that sufficient data are available to model the extinction risk for many less well-known species, which could inform much broader and more effective ecological disaster responses. Using publicly available collection and GIS datasets, combined with life-history data, we modelled the extinction risk from the 2019-2020 catastrophic Australian wildfires for 553 Australian native bee species (33% of all described Australian bee taxa). We suggest that two species are now eligible for listing as Endangered and nine are eligible for listing as Vulnerable under IUCN criteria, on the basis of fire overlap, intensity, frequency, and life-history traits: this tally far exceeds the three Australian bee species listed as threatened prior to the wildfire. We demonstrate how to undertake a wide-scale assessment of wildfire impact on a poorly understood group to help to focus surveys and recovery efforts.We also provide the methods and the script required to make similar assessments for other taxa or in other regions.