While the Mediterranean basin is foreseen to be highly affected by climate change (CC) and severe forest fires are expected to be more frequent, international efforts to fight against CC do not consider forest fires’ greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions risk and the possibility of its mitigation. This is partly due to a lack of a methodology for GHG risk spatial assessment and consideration of the high value of carbon stocks in forest ecosystems and their intrinsic risk. To revert this, an innovative GHG emission risk model has been developed and implemented in a pilot forest area. This model considers geospatial variables to build up emission vulnerability based on potential fire severity and resistance of a landscape, value at risk and the hazard of a fire occurrence. The results classify low, moderate and high emission risks in the analysed areas. This identification of hotspots allows the prioritisation of fire prevention measures in a region to maximise the reduction of GHG emissions in the case of a fire event. This constitutes the first step in a holistic and consistent CC mitigation that not only considers anthropic GHG sources but also possible GHG emissions by forest fires that can be actively prevented, managed and reduced.
Forest management is an untapped tool, yet to realize its full potential to fight against climate change. The capability of forests to act as carbon sinks makes them a key resource to reduce CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. However, carbon which has been fixed can be suddenly emitted again as a consequence of disturbances such as pests or wildfires. Mediterranean plant phenology, climatic conditions, and the accumulation of fuel biomass due to abandonment of traditional forest uses generate a scenario prone to large wildfires and consequently large greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. The abandonment could be offset by considering the economic value of forest ecosystem services, principally carbon fixation. Nevertheless, currently existing forest carbon markets consider only anthropogenic fixation based on a business as usual scenario without disturbances that cannot be applied to Mediterranean forest reality. Thus, a methodology to monetize carbon fixed has been developed and applied. A range between 55.5 and 250 million € produced by the monetization of 16.5 million potential carbon credits has been obtained based on anthropogenic avoided emissions produced over a 10 year-period. Thereby, the potential for offsetting emissions of the pilot region was between 1.2% and 5.6% of total diffuse GHG emissions. Consequently, sustainable forest management represents an important opportunity to combat climate change, taking advantage of the margin of improvement that the Mediterranean forests currently have to avoid GHG emissions through forest fire prevention silviculture.
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