Background: Climate change is projected to cause substantial increases in population movement in coming decades. Previous research has considered the likely causal influences and magnitude of such movements and the risks to national and international security. There has been little research on the consequences of climate-related migration and the health of people who move.Objectives: In this review, we explore the role that health impacts of climate change may play in population movements and then examine the health implications of three types of movements likely to be induced by climate change: forcible displacement by climate impacts, resettlement schemes, and migration as an adaptive response.Methods: This risk assessment draws on research into the health of refugees, migrants, and people in resettlement schemes as analogs of the likely health consequences of climate-related migration. Some account is taken of the possible modulation of those health risks by climate change.Discussion: Climate-change–related migration is likely to result in adverse health outcomes, both for displaced and for host populations, particularly in situations of forced migration. However, where migration and other mobility are used as adaptive strategies, health risks are likely to be minimized, and in some cases there will be health gains.Conclusions: Purposeful and timely policy interventions can facilitate the mobility of people, enhance well-being, and maximize social and economic development in both places of origin and places of destination. Nevertheless, the anticipated occurrence of substantial relocation of groups and communities will underscore the fundamental seriousness of human-induced climate change.
This review analyses global or near-global estimates of population exposure to sea-level rise (SLR) and related hazards, followed by critically examining subsequent estimates of population migration due to this exposure. Our review identified 33 publications that provide global or near-global estimates of population exposure to SLR and associated hazards. They fall into three main categories of exposure, based on definitions in the publications: (i) the population impacted by specified levels of SLR; (ii) the number of people living in floodplains that are subject to coastal flood events with a specific return period; and (iii) the population living in low-elevation coastal zones. Twenty of these 33 publications discuss connections between population migration and SLR. In our analysis of the exposure and migration data, we consider datasets, analytical methods, and the challenges of estimating exposure to SLR followed by potential human migration. We underscore the complex connections among SLR, exposure to its impacts, and migration. Human mobility to and from coastal areas is shaped by diverse socioeconomic, demographic, institutional, and political factors; there may be ‘trapped’ populations as well as those who prefer not to move for social, cultural, and political reasons; and migration can be delayed or forestalled through other adaptive measures. While global estimates of exposed and potentially migrating populations highlight the significant threats of SLR for populations living in low-lying areas at or near coastlines, further research is needed to understand the interactions among localised SLR and related hazards, social and political contexts, adaptation possibilities, and potential migration and (im)mobility decision-making.
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