Recent research using repeat photography, long-term ecological monitoring and dendrochronology has documented shrub expansion in arctic, high-latitude and alpine tundra 1 1748-9326/11/045509+15$33.00 c 2011 IOP Publishing Ltd Printed in the UK Environ. Res. Lett. 6 (2011) 045509 I H Myers-Smith et al ecosystems.Here, we (1) synthesize these findings, (2) present a conceptual framework that identifies mechanisms and constraints on shrub increase, (3) explore causes, feedbacks and implications of the increased shrub cover in tundra ecosystems, and (4) address potential lines of investigation for future research. Satellite observations from around the circumpolar Arctic, showing increased productivity, measured as changes in 'greenness', have coincided with a general rise in high-latitude air temperatures and have been partly attributed to increases in shrub cover. Studies indicate that warming temperatures, changes in snow cover, altered disturbance regimes as a result of permafrost thaw, tundra fires, and anthropogenic activities or changes in herbivory intensity are all contributing to observed changes in shrub abundance. A large-scale increase in shrub cover will change the structure of tundra ecosystems and alter energy fluxes, regional climate, soil-atmosphere exchange of water, carbon and nutrients, and ecological interactions between species. In order to project future rates of shrub expansion and understand the feedbacks to ecosystem and climate processes, future research should investigate the species or trait-specific responses of shrubs to climate change including: (1) the temperature sensitivity of shrub growth, (2) factors controlling the recruitment of new individuals, and (3) the relative influence of the positive and negative feedbacks involved in shrub expansion.

This manuscript describes the energy and water components of a new community land surface model called the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). This is developed from the Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme (MOSES). It can be used as a stand alone land surface model driven by observed forcing data, or coupled to an atmospheric global circulation model. The JULES model has been coupled to the Met Office Unified Model (UM) and as such provides a unique opportunity for the research community to contribute their research to improve both world-leading operational weather forecasting and climate change prediction systems. In addition JULES, and its forerunner MOSES, have been the basis for a number of very high-profile papers concerning the land-surface and climate over the last decade. JULES has a modular structure aligned to physical processes, providing the basis for a flexible modelling platform

There are many models that attempt to predict physical processes in snow on the ground for a range of applications, and evaluations of these models show that they have a wide range of behaviours. A review of snow models, however, shows that many of them draw on a relatively small number of process parametrizations combined in different configurations and using different parameter values. A single model that combines existing parametrizations of differing complexity in many different configurations to generate large ensembles of simulations is presented here. The model is driven and evaluated with data from four winters at an alpine site in France. Consideration of errors in simulations of snow mass, snow depth, albedo and surface temperature show that there is no "best" model, but there is a group of model configurations that give consistently good results, another group that give consistently poor results, and many configurations that give good results in some cases and poor results in others. There is no clear link between model complexity and performance, but the most consistent results come from configurations that have prognostic representations of snow density and albedo and that take some account of storage and refreezing of liquid water within the snow.

This manuscript describes the energy and water components of a new community land surface model called the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). This is developed from the Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme (MOSES). It can be used as a stand alone land surface model driven by observed forcing data, or coupled to an atmospheric global circulation model. The JULES model has been coupled to the Met Office Unified Model (UM) and as such provides an opportunity for the research community to contribute their research into world-leading operational weather forecasting and climate change prediction systems. JULES has a modular structure aligned to physical processes, providing the basis for a flexible modelling platform

Abstract. This paper describes ESM-SnowMIP, an international coordinated modelling effort to evaluate current snow schemes, including snow schemes that are included in Earth system models, in a wide variety of settings against local and global observations. The project aims to identify crucial processes and characteristics that need to be improved in snow models in the context of local- and global-scale modelling. A further objective of ESM-SnowMIP is to better quantify snow-related feedbacks in the Earth system. Although it is not part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), ESM-SnowMIP is tightly linked to the CMIP6-endorsed Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison (LS3MIP).

Previous studies have shown that climate warming is causing shrub cover to increase at high latitudes. Increased shrub cover generally lowers surface albedo, which results in higher energy absorption and further warming. In parts of Fennoscandia, herbivory is known to control vegetation height and abundance, and thus preventing this positive feedback. Here, we combine field measurements of albedo, herbivory and vegetation characteristics in four topographicallydefined vegetation types of varying shrub height and abundance with land surface modeling (JULES) to investigate if reindeer grazing can influence the energy balance of an arctic tundra. We find that when reindeer reduces shrub height and abundance, summer albedo increases in both Betula nana-dominated heath vegetation and Salix glauca-dominated willow depressions. Model results reveal associated lower net radiation, and latent and sensible heat fluxes in heavily-grazed sites in all shrub-dominated vegetation types. Our results also suggest that the structural shift from graminoid to shrub tundra drives the difference in summer albedo, rather than shifts from dwarf-shrub to tall-shrub tundra. Reindeer has thus a potential cooling effect on climate by increasing summer albedo and decreasing net radiation, which highlights the importance of mammalian herbivores for the earth system beyond their local grazing impacts. However, the strong effects of reindeer on albedo are probably restricted to areas with high reindeer densities, since a dramatic vegetation change is essential. The importance of these processes across the whole range of reindeer densities found in the arctic tundra needs to be further evaluated.

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Four satellite‐based snow products are evaluated over the Tibetan Plateau for the 2007–2010 snow seasons. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra and Aqua snow cover daily L3 Global 500‐m grid products (MOD10A1 and MYD10A1), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) daily Northern Hemisphere snow cover product and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer – Earth Observing System Daily Snow Water Equivalent were validated against Thematic Mapper (TM) snow cover maps of Landsat‐5 and meteorological station snow depth observations. The overall accuracy of MOD10A1, MYD10A1 and IMS is higher than 91% against stations observations and than 79% against Landsat TM images. In general, the daily MODIS snow cover products show better performance than the multisensor IMS product. However, the IMS snow cover product is suitable for larger scale (~4km) analysis and applications, with the advantage over MODIS to allow for mitigation for cloud cover. The accuracy of the three products decreases with decreasing snow depth. Overestimation errors are most common over forested regions; the IMS and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer – Earth Observing System Snow Water Equivalent products also show poorer performance that the MODIS products over grassland. By identifying weaknesses in the satellite products, this study provides a focus for the improvement of snow products over the Tibetan plateau. The quantitative evaluation of the products proposed here can also be used to assess their relative weight in data assimilation, against other data sources, such as modelling and in situ measurement networks. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.