Rapid urbanization and climate change together increase the vulnerability of poor urban communities to natural hazards, undermining urban resilience. It is therefore critical to identify and deepen our understanding of the main variables, and the complex interactions between them, producing and shaping the vulnerability of poor urban communities to natural hazards. Identifying factors that challenge or support the efforts of these communities in responding to hazards is also helpful in policymaking for urban resilience. To develop this understanding, it is necessary to conduct detailed research at the local scale. This paper aims to contribute to this knowledge by applying participatory modelling techniques to a particular case study of an informal settlement in Durban, South Africa. The aim is to elucidate how this detailed empirical research can contribute to broader theoretical knowledge on urban vulnerability and resilience in the face of climate change and rapid urbanization. Keywords climate change / Durban / informal settlements / system dynamics / urbanization / vulnerability I. IntroductIon Rapid and unplanned urbanization, in combination with the impacts of climate change, increases the vulnerability of the urban poor to natural hazards. Currently 3.9 billion people, or just over half of the world's population, reside in urban areas. (1) This number is projected to rise to 6.3 billion by 2050, when 66 per cent of the world's population will be considered urban. In absolute terms, this represents an addition of approximately 2.4 billion people to the global urban population. (2) This rapid urbanization process, which will largely take place in cities and towns of the global South, poses significant challenges to both authorities and ordinary citizens, as the majority of these fast-growing urban areas already have high levels of poverty, unemployment, informality and environmental risk, as well as housing and service backlogs. david samuel williams is a junior researcher at climate service center Germany (GerIcs) and specializes in the field of local governance and climate change. Further research interests include the management of hydrological extremes and sustainable development. Address: climate service center Germany (GerIcs), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht-economy and climate Impacts,

Urbanization and climate change are compounding the vulnerability of flooding for the urban poor, particularly in the Global South. However, local governance can be a greater determinant of flood risk than the hazard itself. Identifying strengths and weaknesses in local governance for water management is therefore crucial. This paper presents a governance assessment for Quarry Road West informal settlement, Durban, South Africa, in relation to flood risk by applying the Capital Approach Framework. Through developing a deeper understanding of the current governance system, the embeddedness of several social values can also be gauged. This is important particularly for integrative and transdisciplinary management of flood risk, enacted in the case of Quarry Road West informal settlement through the Palmiet Rehabilitation Project, a multi sector partnership at the climate change and water governance interface. Findings from this study indicate that, currently, climate change adaptation remains a challenge for decision-makers and policy-planners. A more effective integration of the residents of Quarry Road West informal settlement into local governance for water management is urgently needed. This is particularly important in the context of informal settlements that are marginalized and often lacking governance mechanisms to affect change. land in the inner core of cities, where the urban poor can gain improved access to urban resources such as healthcare, emergency services, policing or education through governmental schools, or on the periphery of cities, where land is available [5].At the same time, climate change is affecting the frequency, intensity, and predictability of environmental risk [2,6]. Cities are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change due to the combination of increased precipitation, storm events and floods, extended periods of decreased precipitation and drought events, prolonged stages of intense heat and cold, and rising sea levels. Social vulnerability is commonly concentrated in hazard-prone areas in the city and there is a growing insufficiency of urban infrastructure to cope with the impacts of climate change and protect the population. This highlights the necessity for risk-informed development of urban infrastructure such as road and rail transport, communications, water and energy to deal with the impacts of rapid urbanization and climate change [2].Thus, the New Urban Agenda lists "enhancing urban resilience to climate change and disaster risks" as one of its key challenges for sustainable cities and communities [5]. However, cities also offer significant opportunities for addressing climate change through innovation, efficiencies and the potential for the appropriate governance of, and planning for, mitigation and adaption efforts. Population growth and spatial expansion are further exacerbating flood vulnerability for poor populations in many countries [7], transforming the relationship between bio-physical and social systems [8]. With poor housing and basic services c...

Delegating state responsibilities for the management of water resources to regional bodies and the provision of drinking water and sanitation to local governments has led to new configurations in urban water governance. Drawing on case studies from four cities in the global South (Guarulhos, Arequipa, Lima and Durban), this article analyzes recent changes in these configurations, with particular attention to the role and power of the municipality in this process. This paper explores to what extent these new configurations reveal a move towards resilience, transition or even transformation. It concludes that there are clear indications of transition in all cases, and in Guarulhos and Durban even some signs of transformation. Given that transformative changes in the legal and institutional framework, and even in values and attitudes, have not yet affected the existing power structures, the question is to what extent these signs of transformation will reach their full potential.

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The rescaling of responsibilities in water governance in South Africa has enabled strong water services authorities, such as the eThekwini Water and Sanitation Unit (EWS) in eThekwini Municipality, to play a leading role in shaping water and sanitation policy in South Africa. Yet water governance in the city is complex, shaped by the interactions of multiple social, economic, political and environmental relations in a transforming, fast-growing city that still reflects the legacy of apartheid. This paper identifies and explores the four dominant water governance discourses evident at present in the municipality, namely “water as a human right”, “water as an economic good”, “the spatial differentiation of service provision” and finally, “experimental governance and incremental learning”, which frame the current approach adopted by EWS. These discourses provide the context for the reforms undertaken in water and sanitation provision post-apartheid in eThekwini Municipality.

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