IMPORTANCE Clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) describes a first clinical incident suggestive of multiple sclerosis (MS). Identifying patients with CIS who have a high risk of future disease activity and subsequent MS diagnosis is crucial for patient monitoring and the initiation of disease-modifying therapy. OBJECTIVE To investigate the association of retinal optical coherence tomography (OCT) results with future disease activity in patients with CIS. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This prospective, longitudinal cohort study took place between January 2011 and May 2017 at 2 German tertiary referral centers. A total of 179 patients with CIS were screened (80 in Berlin and 99 in Munich). Patients underwent neurological examination, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and OCT. Only eyes with no previous optic neuritis were considered for OCT analysis. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was not meeting the no evidence of disease activity (NEDA-3) criteria; secondary outcomes were MS diagnosis (by the 2010 McDonald criteria) and worsening of disability. The primary measure was OCT-derived ganglion cell and inner plexiform layer thickness; the secondary measures included peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer thickness, inner nuclear layer thickness, and MRI-derived T2-weighted lesions. RESULTS A total of 97 of the 179 screened patients (54.2%) were enrolled in the study at a median of 93 (interquartile range [IQR], 62-161) days after a first demyelinating event. The median follow-up duration (Kaplan-Meier survival time) was 729 (IQR, 664-903) days. Of 97 patients with CIS (mean age 33.6 [7.9] years; 61 [62.9%] female), 58 (59%) did not meet NEDA-3 criteria during the follow-up period. A Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a significant probability difference in not meeting NEDA-3 criteria by ganglion cell and inner plexiform later thickness (thinnest vs thickest tertile: hazard ratio [HR], 3.33 [95% CI, 1.70-6.55; P < .001; log-rank P = .001). A follow-up diagnosis of MS was more likely for patients with low ganglion cell and inner plexiform layer thickness (thinnest vs thickest tertile: HR, 4.05 [95% CI, 1.93-8.50]; P < .001). Low peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer thickness likewise indicated risk of not meeting NEDA-3 criteria (thinnest vs thickest tertile: HR, 2.46 [95% CI, 1.29-4.66]; P = .01; log-rank P = .02). Inner nuclear layer thickness and T2-weighted lesion count were not associated with not meeting NEDA-3 criteria. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Retinal ganglion cell and inner plexiform layer thickness might prove a valuable imaging marker for anticipating future disease activity and diagnosis of MS in patients with CIS, which can potentially support patient monitoring and initiation of disease-modifying therapy.

ObjectivesTo evaluate intrathecal immunoglobulin M (IgM) production, as compared to previously established risk factors, as risk factor for conversion from clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) to multiple sclerosis (MS) and to explore the association of intrathecal IgM production with onset age and radiologic and CSF findings in CIS/early MS.MethodsComprehensive CSF data, including oligoclonal immunoglobulin G (IgG) bands (OCB) and calculated intrathecal IgM and IgG production, were collected in a prospective study of 150 patients with CIS/early MS with regular clinical and MRI assessments.ResultsIntrathecal IgM production >0% occurred in 23.2% (33/142) of patients, who were on average 5 years younger at disease onset (p = 0.013) and more frequently had infratentorial lesions (18/32, 56.3%) than patients without intrathecal IgM production (33/104, 31.7%, p = 0.021). In multivariable Cox regression analyses, intrathecal IgM production in patients with a CIS (n = 93, median clinical and MRI follow-up 24 and 21 months) was strongly associated with conversion to MS according to the McDonald 2010 criteria (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] 3.05 [1.45–6.44], p = 0.003) after adjustment for age (0.96 [0.93–1.00], p = 0.059), OCB (0.92 [0.33–2.61], p = 0.879), intrathecal IgG production (0.98 [0.48–1.99], p = 0.947), and radiologic evidence of dissemination in space (2.63 [1.11–6.22], p = 0.028).ConclusionIntrathecal IgM production is a strong independent risk factor for early conversion to MS and may thus represent a clinically meaningful marker for predicting future disease activity in patients with a CIS.