The purpose of this paper is to estimate changes in productivity, technical efficiency and technology across the economic sectors during the period 1985-2006. We also seek to identify the turning points for productivity growth to see whether it was accompanied by technological change and/or technical efficiency. For estimating economic growth, aggregate production function is used. We find that, during the study period, technical progress contributed about 19.7 per cent to the country's economic growth. We also estimate total factor productivity for the whole economy as well as for individual economic sectors, and the results show that the economy's productivity growth was largely driven by the industrial sector.

In this period of uncertainty about future economic growth, we have developed a growth projection tool for 13 advanced countries and the euro area at the 2100 horizon. This high uncertainty is reflected in the debate on the possibility of a 'secular stagnation'. Our projection tool allows for the modelling of technology shocks, for different speeds of regulation and education convergence, with endogenous capital growth and TFP convergence processes. We illustrate the benefits of this tool through four growth scenarios, crossing the cases of a new technology shock or secular stagnation with those of regulation and education convergence or of absence of reforms. Over the 2015-2100 period, the secular stagnation scenario assumes yearly TFP growth of 0.6% in the US, leading to a 1.5% GDP growth trend. The technology shock scenario assumes that the third technological revolution will, in the US, provide similar TFP gains to electricity during the second industrial revolution, leading to a 1.4% TFP trend, to which we add a TFP growth wave peaking in 2040, and thus to an average GDP growth rate of 3% in the US. In non-US countries, GDP growth will depend on the implementation of regulation reforms, the increase in education and on the distance to the country-specific convergence target. Over the period 2015-2060, for the euro area, Japan and the United Kingdom, benefits from regulation and education convergence would amount to a 0.1 to 0.4 pp yearly growth rate depending on the initial degree of rigidity and of the TFP distance to the US.

In this period of uncertainty about future economic growth, we have developed a growth projection tool for 13 advanced countries and the euro area at the 2100 horizon. This high uncertainty is reflected in the debate on the possibility of a 'secular stagnation'. Our projection tool allows for the modelling of technology shocks, for different speeds of regulation and education convergence, with endogenous capital growth and TFP convergence processes. We illustrate the benefits of this tool through four growth scenarios, crossing the cases of a new technology shock or secular stagnation with those of regulation and education convergence or of absence of reforms. Over the 2015-2100 period, the secular stagnation scenario assumes yearly TFP growth of 0.6% in the US, leading to a 1.5% GDP growth trend. The technology shock scenario assumes that the third technological revolution will, in the US, provide similar TFP gains to electricity during the second industrial revolution, leading to a 1.4% TFP trend, to which we add a TFP growth wave peaking in 2040, and thus to an average GDP growth rate of 3% in the US. In non-US countries, GDP growth will depend on the implementation of regulation reforms, the increase in education and on the distance to the country-specific convergence target. Over the period 2015-2060, for the euro area, Japan and the United Kingdom, benefits from regulation and education convergence would amount to a 0.1 to 0.4 pp yearly growth rate depending on the initial degree of rigidity and of the TFP distance to the US.