In potentially severe diseases in general and COVID-19 in particular, it is vital to early identify those patients who are going to progress to severe disease. A recent living systematic review dedicated to predictive models in COVID-19, critically appraises 145 models, 8 of them focused on prediction of severe disease and 23 on mortality. Unfortunately, in all 145 models, they found a risk of bias significant enough to finally "not recommend any for clinical use". Authors suggest concentrating on avoiding biases in sampling and prioritising the study of already identified predictive factors, rather than the identification of new ones that are often dependent on the database. Our objective is to develop a model to predict which patients with COVID-19 pneumonia are at high risk of developing severe illness or dying, using basic and validated clinical tools. We studied a prospective cohort of consecutive patients admitted in a teaching hospital during the “first wave” of the COVID-19 pandemic. Follow-up to discharge from hospital. Multiple logistic regression selecting variables according to clinical and statistical criteria. 404 consecutive patients were evaluated, 392 (97%) completed follow-up. Mean age was 61 years; 59% were men. The median burden of comorbidity was 2 points in the Age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index, CRB was abnormal in 18% of patients and basal oxygen saturation on admission lower than 90% in 18%. A model composed of Age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index, CRB score and basal oxygen saturation can predict unfavorable evolution or death with an area under the ROC curve of 0.85 (95% CI 0.80–0.89), and 0.90 (95% CI 0.86 to 0.94), respectively. Prognosis of COVID-19 pneumonia can be predicted without laboratory tests using two classic clinical tools and a pocket pulse oximeter.

Background: In potentially severe diseases in general and COVID-19 in particular, it is vital to early identify those patients who are going to develop complications. The last update of a recent living systematic review dedicated to predictive models in COVID-19,[1] critically appraises 145 models, 8 of them focused on prediction of severe disease and 23 on mortality. Unfortunately, in all 145 models, they found a risk of bias significant enough to finally "not recommend any for clinical use". Authors suggest concentrating on avoiding biases in sampling and prioritising the study of already identified predictive factors, rather than the identification of new ones that are often dependent on the database. Our objective is to develop a model to predict which patients with COVID-19 pneumonia are at high risk of developing severe illness or dying, using basic and validated clinical tools.Methods: prospective cohort of consecutive patients admitted in a teaching hospital during the “first wave” of the COVID-19 pandemic. Follow-up to discharge from hospital. Multiple logistic regression selecting variables according to clinical and statistical criteria. Results: 404 consecutive patients were evaluated, 392 (97%) completed follow-up. Mean age was 61 years; 59% were men. The median burden of comorbidity was 2 points in the Age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index, CRB was abnormal in 18% of patients and basal oxygen saturation on admission lower than 90% in 18%. A model composed of Age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index, CRB score and basal oxygen saturation can predict unfavorable evolution or death with an area under the ROC curve of 0.85 (95% CI: 0.80-0.89), and 0.90 (95% CI: 0.86 to 0.94), respectively.Conclusion: prognosis of COVID-19 pneumonia can be predicted in the out-of-hospital environment using two classic prognostic scales and a pocket pulse oximeter.

Background: Short and long-term sequelae after admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) for coronavirus disease 2019 are to be expected, which makes multidisciplinary care key in the support of physical and cognitive recovery. Objective: To describe, from a multidisciplinary perspective, the sequelae one month after hospital discharge among patients who required ICU admission for severe COVID-19 pneumonia. Design: Prospective cohort study. Environment: Multidisciplinary outpatient clinic. Population: Patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia, post-ICU admission. Methods: A total of 104 patients completed the study in the multidisciplinary outpatient clinic. The tests performed included spirometry, measurement of respiratory muscle pressure, loss of body cell mass (BCM) and BCM index (BCMI), general joint and muscular mobility, the short physical performance battery (SPPB or Guralnik test), grip strength with hand dynamometer, the six-minute walk test (6-MWT), the functional assessment of chronic illness therapy-fatigue scale (FACIT-F), the European quality of life-5 dimensions (EQ-5D), the Barthel index and the Montreal cognitive assessment test (MoCA). While rehabilitation was not necessary for 23 patients, 38 patients attended group rehabilitation sessions and other 43 patients received home rehabilitation. Endpoints: The main sequelae detected in patients were fatigue (75.96%), dyspnoea (64.42%) and oxygen therapy on discharge (37.5%). The MoCA showed a mean score compatible with mild cognitive decline. The main impairment of joint mobility was limited shoulder (11.54%) and shoulder girdle (2.88%) mobility; whereas for muscle mobility, lower limb limitations (16.35%) were the main dysfunction. Distal neuropathy was present in 23.08% of patients, most frequently located in lower limbs (15.38%). Finally, 50% of patients reported moderate limitation in the EQ-5D, with a mean score of 60.62 points (SD 20.15) in perceived quality of life. Ivyspring International PublisherConclusions: Our findings support the need for a multidisciplinary and comprehensive evaluation of patients after ICU admission for COVID-19 because of the wide range of sequelae, which also mean that these patients need a long-term follow-up. Impact on clinical rehabilitation:This study provides data supporting the key role of rehabilitation during the follow-up of severe patients, thus facilitating their reintegration in society and a suitable adaptation to daily living.

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