This paper undertakes a data-driven segmentation analysis on tourists’ choice of island destinations in the context of a changing climate. To this end, 2528 tourists visiting ten European islands in the Mediterranean, Baltic, and Atlantic regions were posed hypothetical situations in which diverse impacts caused by CC (i.e., beach loss, heatwaves, storm intensification, etc.) were affecting the islands being visited. In each scenario, tourists’ responses ranged from stay on the island to change to an alternative destination. Cluster analysis allowed the identification of four segments: (1) LO-loyal oriented—tourists willing to stay on the island despite any climatic event (in this group, tourists would often change the travel date); (2) RA-risk-averse—tourists who would always avoid islands affected by CC; (3) WIL-risk-specific—a segment of tourists with a special aversion to the risks associated with wildlife disappearance and damage to infrastructure, and (4) 3S-sun, sea and sand seekers—tourists who would always avoid visiting islands where CC induced effects are related to beach loss or extreme events. Further analysis is dedicated to comparing segments in regard to their sociodemographic characteristics, the image of the island, and the importance given to the protection of environmental attributes when choosing an island destination. The results alert us about the climate-specific risks and tourist profiles that are relevant to explaining changes in the tourism geography and seasonality of islands. The findings are useful for providing operational marketing recommendations for destination managers, especially for taking competitive advantage of climate services, and for prevention and responsiveness management strategies.
The occurrence of infectious diseases may change tourists’ perceptions of a destination’s image and value. This article proposes and empirically tests a choice model to measure the effect of the risk of infectious disease outbreaks caused by climate change on tourists’ willingness to pay for holidays to island destinations. With this aim, an online survey was administrated to 2538 European frequent travellers at their country of residence. Tourists were presented with a hypothetical situation whereby they had to choose among eleven well-known European island destinations for their next holiday. The choice cards included the probability of the occurrence of infectious disease events in the context of other potential risks caused by climate change (i.e., forest fires, floods, heat waves, etc.). The results show infectious disease is the risk that more negatively affects tourists’ willingness to pay to visit islands, followed by forest fires. The results have implications for tourism policy, highlighting the importance of prevention and response strategies, and the design of climate-oriented services, which may raise opportunities to work towards the enhancement of those health and environmental conditions of tourist destinations that ensure their sustainability in the longer term.
In this paper we use a novel approach to address issues of endogeneity in estimating a causal effect of leverage on risk taking by banks. Using data on local bank office deposits and local unemployment we construct an instrument to use in a regression of leverage on a measure of risk taking constructed from new issuance of loans. The results (i.) confirm that due to limited liability banks increase their risk taking after an exogenous increase in leverage, and (ii.) that an increase in deposit supply has a direct positive effect on risk taking by banks.
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