Patient outcome in primary myelofibrosis (PMF) is significantly influenced by karyotype. We studied 879 PMF patients to determine the individual and combinatorial prognostic relevance of somatic mutations. Analysis was performed in 483 European patients and the seminal observations were validated in 396 Mayo Clinic patients. Samples from the European cohort, collected at time of diagnosis, were analyzed for mutations in ASXL1, SRSF2, EZH2, TET2, DNMT3A, CBL, IDH1, IDH2, MPL and JAK2. Of these, ASXL1, SRSF2 and EZH2 mutations inter-independently predicted shortened survival. However, only ASXL1 mutations (HR: 2.02; P<0.001) remained significant in the context of the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS). These observations were validated in the Mayo Clinic cohort where mutation and survival analyses were performed from time of referral. ASXL1, SRSF2 and EZH2 mutations were independently associated with poor survival, but only ASXL1 mutations held their prognostic relevance (HR: 1.4; P=0.04) independent of the Dynamic IPSS (DIPSS)-plus model, which incorporates cytogenetic risk. In the European cohort, leukemia-free survival was negatively affected by IDH1/2, SRSF2 and ASXL1 mutations and in the Mayo cohort by IDH1 and SRSF2 mutations. Mutational profiling for ASXL1, EZH2, SRSF2 and IDH identifies PMF patients who are at risk for premature death or leukemic transformation.

Purpose To develop a prognostic system for transplantation-age patients with primary myelofibrosis (PMF) that integrates clinical, cytogenetic, and mutation data. Patients and Methods The study included 805 patients with PMF age ≤ 70 years recruited from multiple Italian centers and the Mayo Clinic (Rochester, MN), forming two independent learning and validation cohorts. A Cox multivariable model was used to select from among a list of 22 variables those that were predictive of overall survival (OS). Integrated clinical and genetic prognostic models with (MIPSS70-plus) or without (MIPSS70) cytogenetic information were developed. Results Multivariable analysis identified the following as significant risk factors for OS: hemoglobin < 100 g/L, leukocytes > 25 × 10/L, platelets < 100 × 10/L, circulating blasts ≥ 2%, bone marrow fibrosis grade ≥ 2, constitutional symptoms, absence of CALR type-1 mutation, presence of high-molecular risk mutation (ie, ASXL1, EZH2, SRSF2, IDH1/ 2), and presence of two or more high-molecular risk mutations. By assigning hazard ratio (HR)-weighted points to these variables, three risk categories were delineated for the MIPSS70 model; 5-year OS was 95% in low-risk, 70% in intermediate-risk, and 29% in high-risk categories, corresponding to median OS of 27.7 years (95% CI, 22 to 34 years), 7.1 years (95% CI, 6.2 to 8.1 years), and 2.3 years (95% CI, 1.9 to 2.7 years), respectively. In the MIPSS70-plus model, which included cytogenetic information, four risk categories were delineated, with 5-year OS of 91% in low-risk, 66% in intermediate-risk (HR, 3.2; 95% CI, 1.9 to 5.2), 42% in high-risk (HR, 6.4; 95% CI, 4.1 to 10.0), and 7% very high-risk categories (HR, 17.0; 95% CI, 9.8 to 29.2). Both models remained effective after inclusion of older patients in the analysis. Conclusion MIPSS70 and MIPSS70-plus provide complementary systems of risk stratification for transplantation-age patients with PMF and integrate prognostically relevant clinical, cytogenetic, and mutation data.

Key Points CALR mutations occur in half of JAK2 and MPL wt patients with ET and associate with some distinctive phenotypic traits. Patients with ET harboring CALR mutations are at significantly lower risk of thrombosis compared with JAK2- and MPL-mutated patients.

Key Points• More than half of patients with PV or ET harbor DNA mutations/ variants other than JAK2/CALR/MPL.• The presence of some of these mutations adversely affects overall, leukemia-free, or myelofibrosis-free survival.Polycythemia vera (PV) is characterized by JAK2 and essential thrombocythemia (ET) by JAK2, calreticulin (CALR), and myeloproliferative leukemia virus oncogene (MPL) mutations; we describe the occurrence and prognostic relevance of DNA sequence variants/mutations other than JAK2/CALR/MPL. A myeloid neoplasm-relevant 27-gene panel was used for nextgeneration sequencing of bone marrow or whole blood DNA and conventional tools were used for analysis. "Adverse variants/mutations" were identified by age-adjusted multivariable analysis of impact on overall, leukemia-free, or myelofibrosis-free survival. Fifty-three percent of 133 Mayo Clinic patients with PV and 53% of 183 with ET harbored 1 or more sequence variants/mutations other than JAK2/CALR/MPL; the most frequent were TET2 and ASXL1. "Adverse variants/mutations" in PV included ASXL1, SRSF2, and IDH2 and in ET SH2B3, SF3B1, U2AF1, TP53, IDH2, and EZH2; combined prevalence was 15% and 15%, respectively. Adverse variants/mutations were associated with inferior survival in both PV (median, 7.7 vs 16.9 years) and ET (median, 9 vs 22 years) and the effect was independent of conventional prognostic models with respective hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of 2.8 (1.5-5.1) and 2.6 (1.4-4.8); these observations were validated in 215 Italian patients with PV and 174 with ET. In both Mayo Clinic and Italian cohorts, leukemic or fibrotic progression was also predicted by adverse variants/mutations. Number of mutations did not provide additional prognostic information. We conclude that targeted deep sequencing in PV and ET allows for genetic risk stratification that is independent of clinically derived prognostic models.

Key Points Patients with PMF may carry JAK2 (V617F), a CALR exon 9 indel, an MPL exon 10 mutation, or none of these genetic lesions. The genetic subtypes of PMF differ substantially as regards clinical course, disease progression, and overall survival.

We recently defined a high-molecular risk category (HMR) in primary myelofibrosis (PMF), based on the presence of at least one of the five 'prognostically detrimental' mutated genes (ASXL1, EZH2, SRSF2 and IDH1/2). Herein, we evaluate the additional prognostic value of the 'number' of mutated genes. A total of 797 patients were recruited from Europe (n=537) and the Mayo Clinic (n=260). In the European cohort, 167 (31%) patients were HMR: 127 (23.6%) had one and 40 (7.4%) had two or more mutated genes. The presence of two or more mutations predicted the worst survival: median 2.6 years (hazard ratio (HR) 3.8, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.6-5.7) vs. 7.0 years (HR 1.9, 95% CI 1.4-2.6) for one mutation vs 12.3 years for no mutations. The results were validated in the Mayo cohort and prognostic significance in both cohorts was independent of International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS; HR 2.4, 95% CI 1.6-3.6) and dynamic IPSS (DIPSS)-plus (HR 1.9, 95% CI 1.2-3.1), respectively. Two or more mutations were also associated with shortened leukemia-free survival (HR 6.2, 95% CI 3.5-10.7), also Mayo validated. Calreticulin mutations favorably affected survival, independently of both number of mutations and IPSS/DIPSS-plus. We conclude that the 'number' of prognostically detrimental mutations provides added value in the combined molecular and clinical prognostication of PMF.

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Key Points Differential diagnosis of pre-PMF and overt PMF by 2016 WHO criteria underscores uniqueness in disease presentation and outcome. Patterns of driver and nondriver myeloid gene mutations contribute to prognosis in both pre-PMF and overt PMF.