Using a newly developed dataset this paper examines the cyclicality of private capital inflows to low-income developing countries (LIDCs) over the period 1990-2012. The empirical analysis shows that capital inflows to LIDCs are procyclical, yet considerably less procyclical than flows to more advanced economies. The analysis also suggests that flows to LIDCs are more persistent than flows to emerging markets (EMs). There is also evidence that changes in risk aversion are a significant correlate of private capital inflows with the expected sign, but LIDCs seem to be less sensitive to changes in global risk aversion than EMs. A host of robustness checks to alternative estimation methods, samples, and control variables confirm the baseline results. In terms of policy implications, these findings suggest that private capital inflows are likely to become more procyclical as LIDCs move along the development path, which could in turn raise several associated policy challenges, not the least concerning the reform of traditional monetary policy frameworks.
Low-income countries (LIDCs) are typically characterized by intermittent and very modest access to private external funding sources. Motivated by recent developments in private flows to LIDCs this paper makes two contributions: First, it constructs a new comprehensive dataset on gross private capital flows with special focus on non-FDI flows in LIDCs. Concentrating on LIDCs and more specifically on gross non-FDI private flows is intentionally aimed at closing a gap in existing datasets where country coverage of developing economies is limited mainly to emerging markets (EMs). Second, using the new data, it identifies several shifting patterns of gross non-FDI private inflows to LIDCs. A surprising fact emerges: since the mid 2000's periods of surges in gross non-FDI private inflows in LIDCs are broadly comparable to those of EMs. Moreover, while gross non-FDI inflows to LIDCs are on average much lower than those to EMs, we show that the LIDC top quartile gross non-FDI inflow is comparable to the EM median inflow and converging to the EM top quartile inflow.
We examine how banks' cross-border lending reacts to changes in liquidity regulation using a new dataset on Individual Liquidity Guidance (ILG), which was enacted in the UK from 2000 to 2015 and is similar to the Basel III Liquidity Coverage Ratio. A one percentage point increase in liquidity requirements to total assets reduces UK resident banks' cross-border lending growth by around 0.6 percentage points and both bank and non-bank lending are affected. But quality matters: an increase in the holdings of High Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA) qualifying sovereign debt offsets some of the reduction in total cross-border lending growth. Furthermore, the strongest reduction is driven by foreign subsidiaries from countries where sovereigns do not issue HQLA; in contrast subsidiaries from countries issuing HQLA are able to protect their lending to unrelated entities and cut their intragroup lending instead. Banks with a higher deposit share as a consequence of established retail operations, such as those headquartered in the UK, are also able to offset the effects of increases of liquidity requirement on cross-border lending.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.