Summary This manuscript proposes a new approach for unveiling existing linkages within the international oil market across multiple driving factors beyond production. A multilayer, multicountry network is extracted through a novel Bayesian graphical vector autoregressive model, which allows for a more comprehensive, dynamic representation of the network linkages than do traditional or static pairwise Granger-causal inference approaches. Building on previous work, the layers of the network include country- and region-specific oil production levels and rigs, both through simultaneous and lagged temporal dependences among key factors, while controlling for oil prices and a world economic activity index. The proposed approach extracts relationships across all variables through a dynamic, cross-regional network. This approach is highly scalable and adjusts for time-evolving linkages. The model outcome is a set of time-varying graphical networks that unveil both static representations of world oil linkages and variations in microeconomic relationships both within and between oil producers. An example is provided, illustrating the evolution of intra- and inter-regional relationships for two major interconnected oil producers: the United States, with a regional decomposition of its production and rig deployment, and the Arabian Peninsula and key Middle Eastern producers, with a country-based decomposition of production and rig deployment, while controlling for oil prices and global economic indices. Production is less affected by concurrent changes in oil prices and the overall economy than rigs. However, production is a lagged driver for prices, rather than rigs, which indicates that the linkage between rigs and production may not be fully accounted for in the markets.
This technical note discusses the changes in the price of crude oil that occurred in the second half of 2014 and the price dynamics of the first half of 2015.
to del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID) como un bien público regional, destinado a incrementar el acervo de conocimiento sobre las características y el funcionamiento del Sector Energía en los países de América Latina y el Caribe (LAC).Es un primer paso en un proyecto que debe culminar en libros que organicen los países de acuerdo con las subregiones en las que el BID agrupa a los países de LAC. El propósito de publicar cada país por separado es obtener retroalimentación del análisis descriptivo que se hace, tanto de autoridades locales, como de académicos y el público lector en general.Las críticas y observaciones se pueden hacer llegar a los autores por vía electrónica a la siguiente dirección: ramones@iadb.org Las fuentes de información se hacen explícitas y la responsabilidad de su utilización e interpretación es exclusiva de los autores de estas monografías. Las opiniones expresadas en esta publicación son exclusivamente de los autores y no necesariamente reflejan el punto de vista del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo, de su Directorio Ejecutivo ni de los países que representa.Se prohíbe el uso comercial o personal no autorizado de los documentos del Banco, y tal podría castigarse de conformidad con las políticas del Banco y/o las legislaciones aplicables.
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