The analysis of cosmic ray intensity variation seen by muon detectors at Earthʼs surface can help us to understand astrophysical, solar, interplanetary and geomagnetic phenomena. However, before comparing cosmic ray intensity variations with extraterrestrial phenomena, it is necessary to take into account atmospheric effects such as the temperature effect. In this work, we analyzed this effect on the Global Muon Detector Network (GMDN), which is composed of four ground-based detectors, two in the northern hemisphere and two in the southern hemisphere. In general, we found a higher temperature influence on detectors located in the northern hemisphere. Besides that, we noticed that the seasonal temperature variation observed at the ground and at the altitude of maximum muon production are in antiphase for all GMDN locations (low-latitude regions). In this way, contrary to what is expected in high-latitude regions, the ground muon intensity decrease occurring during summertime would be related to both parts of the temperature effect (the negative and the positive). We analyzed several methods to describe the temperature effect on cosmic ray intensity. We found that the mass weighted method is the one that best reproduces the seasonal cosmic ray variation observed by the GMDN detectors and allows the highest correlation with long-term variation of the cosmic ray intensity seen by neutron monitors.

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The time of arrival (ToA) of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at Earth is a key parameter due to the space weather phenomena associated with the CME arrival, such as intense geomagnetic storms. Despite the incremental use of new instrumentation and the development of novel methodologies, ToA estimated errors remain above 10 h on average. Here, we investigate the prediction of the ToA of CMEs using observations from heliospheric imagers, i.e., from heliocentric distances higher than those covered by the existent coronagraphs. In order to perform this work, we analyze 14 CMEs observed by the heliospheric imagers HI-1 onboard the twin STEREO spacecraft to determine their front location and speed. The kinematic parameters are derived with a new technique based on the Elliptical Conversion (ElCon) method, which uses simultaneous observations from the two viewpoints from STEREO. Outside the field of view of the instruments, we assume that the dynamics of the CME evolution is controlled by aerodynamic drag, i.e., a force resulting from the interaction with particles from the background solar wind. To model the drag force, we use a physical model that allows us to derive its parameters without the need to rely on drag coefficients derived empirically. We found a CME ToA mean error of 1.6 ± 8.0 h ToA and a mean absolute error of 6.9 ± 3.9 h for a set of 14 events. The results suggest that observations from HI-1 lead to estimates with similar errors to observations from coronagraphs.

We use Parker Solar Probe (PSP) observations to report the first direct measurements of the particle and field environments while crossing the leg of a coronal mass ejection (CME) very close to the Sun (∼14 Rs). An analysis that combines imaging from 1 au and PSP with a CME model, predicts an encounter time and duration that correspond to an unusual, complete dropout in low-energy solar energetic ions from H–Fe, observed by the Integrated Science Investigation of the Sun (IS⊙IS). The surrounding regions are populated with low-intensity protons and heavy ions from 10s to 100 keV, typical of some quiet times close in to the Sun. In contrast, the magnetic field and solar wind plasma show no similarly abrupt changes at the boundaries of the dropout. Together, the IS⊙IS energetic particle observations, combined with remote sensing of the CME and a dearth of other “typical” CME signatures, indicate that this CME leg is significantly different from the magnetic and plasma structure normally assumed for CMEs near the Sun and observed in interplanetary CMEs farther out in the solar wind. The dropout in low-energy energetic ions may be due to the cooling of suprathermal ions at the base of the CME leg flux tube, owing to the rapid outward expansion during the release of the CME.