The continued loss, fragmentation, and degradation of forest habitats are driving an extinction crisis for tropical and subtropical bird species. This loss is particularly acute in the Atlantic Forest of South America, where it is unclear whether several endemic bird species are extinct or extant. We collate and model spatiotemporal distributional data for one such “lost” species, the Purple-winged Ground Dove Paraclaravis geoffroyi, a Critically Endangered endemic of the Atlantic Forest biome, which is nomadic and apparently dependent on masting bamboo stands. We compared its patterns of occurrence with that of a rare “control” forest pigeon, the Violaceous Quail-Dove Geotrygon violacea, which occurs in regional sympatry. We also solicit information from aviculturists who formerly kept the species. We find that the two species share a similar historical recording rate but can find no documentary evidence (i.e., specimens, photos, video, sound recordings) for the persistence of Purple-winged Ground Dove in the wild after the 1980s, despite periodic sighting records, and after which time citizen scientists frequently documented the control species in the wild. Assessments of the probability that the species is extant are sensitive to the method of analysis, and whether records lacking documentary evidence are considered credible. Analysis of the temporal sequence of past records reveals the extent of the historical range contraction of the Purple-winged Ground Dove, while our species distribution model highlights the geographic search priorities for field ornithologists hoping to rediscover the species—aided by the first recording of the species vocalizations which we obtained from interviews with aviculturists. Our interviews also revealed that the species persisted in captivity from the 1970s until the 1990s (up to 150 birds), until a law was passed obstructing captive breeding efforts by private individuals, putting an end to perhaps the best chance we had to save the species from extinction.
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop a new interdisciplinary methodology to estimate the life cycle cost (LCC) of complex business-to-business products in order to price different types of maintenance contracts and show the applicability of the method in a case study. LCC comprise of initial capital costs as well of operation costs including probabilistic costs (such as the costs of repairs and spare parts), which are directly linked to the maintenance characteristics of the product. Design/methodology/approach The paper proposes an integrated and practical methodology that applies different approaches from different disciplines. Therefore, exponential distributions for failure rates in subsystems, World Bank logistics factors for logistics costs of spare part handling, as well implied credit default probabilities for the counterpart risk in full service leasing contracts are applied. In order to validate the applicability of the proposed methodology to practical problems, the tool is applied in three case studies. Findings The results of the case studies show that this methodology can be applied to analyze LCC structures of engines operating in various regions with regard to different types of engine maintenance contracts. The results also highlight the interplay of technical as well as financial risks. Originality/value Because the literature in maintenance engineering so far either proposes general frameworks to calculate LCC or concentrates on specific aspects of LCC, the paper contributes to the literature in presenting a new interdisciplinary methodology to estimate the LCC.
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