The main purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate whether, between 1970 and 2008, the Brazilian economy was profit-led or wage-led. To this end, we approach a canonical post-Keynesian growth model (PKGM) to estimate certain vector autoregressive (VAR) models and perform Granger non-causality tests. Three main results are extracted from the generalized impulse-response functions provided by the VAR models. First, a positive profit-share innovation affects economic growth and capacity utilization rate, both in the same direction, suggesting a profit-led pattern. Second, a profit share shock positively affects both the ratio actual/potential output, and capital accumulation, reinforcing the previous result. Third, a capacity utilization shock is shown to positively affect both output growth and capital accumulation via the accelerator effect. On the one hand, the pairwise Granger non-causality test does not provide any evidence of causality running from profit share to economic growth or capacity utilization. On the other hand, there is some evidence of Granger causality running from profit share to capital accumulation. JEL CLASSIFICATION e12; e25; o40 ARTICLE HISTORY
Este artigo analisa a Política Industrial (PI) nos dois mandatos do governo Lula. Mais especificamente, foram estudadas a PITCE (Política Industrial, Tecnológica e de Comércio Exterior) e a PDP (Política de Desenvolvimento Produtivo), lançadas, respectivamente, em 2004 e 2008. Também se estuda a atuação do BNDES, principal agência executora de PI no Brasil. Considerando o arcabouço encontrado em Rodrik (2004) como benchmark, conclui-se que a PI nos dois mandatos do governo Lula não foi uma política pró-inovação.
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