Climate change presents new challenges for selecting species for restoration. If migration fails to keep pace with climate change, as models predict, the most suitable sources for restoration may not occur locally at all. To address this issue, we propose a strategy of “prestoration”: utilizing species in restoration for which a site represents suitable habitat now and into the future. Using the Colorado Plateau, United States, as a case study, we assess the ability of grass species currently used regionally in restoration to persist into the future using projections of ecological niche models (or climate envelope models) across a suite of climate change scenarios. We then present a technique for identifying new species that best compensate for future losses of suitable habitat by current target species. We found that the current suite of species, selected by a group of experts, is predicted to perform reasonably well in the short term, but that losses of prestorable habitat by mid‐century would approach 40%. Using an algorithm to identify additional species, we found that fewer than 10 species could compensate for nearly all of the losses incurred by the current target species. This case study highlights the utility of integrating ecological niche modeling and future climate forecasts to predict the utility of species in restoring under climate change across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales.
1. Drylands have low nitrogen stocks and are predicted to be sensitive to modest increases in reactive nitrogen availability, but direct evidence that atmospheric nitrogen deposition will have sustained effects on dryland ecosystems is sparse and conflicting.2. We used three long-running in situ nitrogen deposition simulation experiments and a complementary laboratory incubation experiment to address fundamental questions about how nitrogen inputs affect drylands: (1) What are the long-and short-term consequences of nitrogen inputs for biogeochemical and ecosystem properties?; (2) Do these consequences depend on soil moisture availability?; and (3) Does soil texture modify the effects of nitrogen inputs and/or soil moisture availability? 3. In 2011, we established three study sites along a soil texture gradient in Arches National Park with plots receiving 0, 2, 5 or 8 kg N ha −1 annually (n = 5 per treatment per site). We assessed a suite of biogeochemical metrics over the long term and short term. To assess longer term effects, we sampled annually (2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018)(2019), just prior to spring nitrogen fertilization. To assess short-term effects, we sampled immediately before and after spring nitrogen fertilization in 2013.Additionally, we compared foliar chemistry, soil extracellular enzyme activities, heterotrophic respiration rates, and nitrogen trace gas fluxes at select intervals during the study period (2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018)(2019). Finally, we conducted a laboratory incubation to measure the individual and interacting effects of soil moisture and nitrogen additions on soil microbial activity. 4. We identified some short-term effects in situ, but no lasting consequences of added nitrogen for any of the metrics measured. In the incubation, soil moisture treatments independently increased heterotrophic respiration rates but did not modify the effects of added nitrogen. In contrast to nitrogen treatments, soil texture was associated with large differences in biogeochemical cycling.
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