The authors develop a model of customer channel migration and apply it to a retailer that markets over the Web and through catalogs. The model identifies the key phenomena required to analyze customer migration, shows how these phenomena can be modeled, and develops an approach for estimating the model. The methodology is unique in its ability to accommodate heterogeneous customer responses to a large number of distinct marketing communications in a dynamic context. The results indicate that (1) Web purchasing is associated with lower subsequent purchase volumes than when buying from other outlets; (2) marketing efforts are associated with channel usage and purchase incidence, offsetting negative Web experience effects; and (3) negative interactions occur between like communications (catalog × catalog or email × e-mail) and between different types of communications (catalog × e-mail). The authors find that over the four-year period of their data, a Web-oriented "migration" segment emerged, and this group had higher sales volume. Their post hoc analysis suggests that marketing efforts and exogenous customer-level trends played key roles in forming these segments. The authors rule out alternative explanations, such as that the Web attracted customers who were already heavy users or that the Web developed these customers into heavier users. They conclude with a discussion of implications for both academics and practitioners.

Customized communications have the potential to reduce information overload and aid customer decisions, and the highly relevant products that result from customization can form the cornerstone of enduring customer relationships. In spite of such potential benefits, few models exist in the marketing literature to exploit the Internet's unique ability to design communications or marketing programs at the individual level. The authors develop a statistical and optimization approach for customization of information on the Internet. The authors use clickstream data from users at one of the top ten most trafficked Web sites to estimate the model and optimize the design and content of such communications for each user. The authors apply the model to the context of permission-based e-mail marketing, in which the objective is to customize the design and content of the e-mail to increase Web site traffic. The analysis suggests that the content-targeting approach can potentially increase the expected number of click-throughs by 62%.

The authors examine the long-term effects of promotion and advertising on consumers’ brand choice behavior. They use 8 1/4 years of panel data for a frequently purchased packaged good to address two questions: (1) Do consumers’ responses to marketing mix variables, such as price, change over a long period of time? (2) If yes, are these changes associated with changes in manufacturers’ advertising and retailers’ promotional policies? Using these results, the authors draw implications for manufacturers’ pricing, advertising, and promotion policies. The authors use a two-stage approach, which permits them to assess the medium-term (quarterly) effects of advertising and promotion as well as their long-term (i.e., over an infinite horizon) effects. Their results are consistent with the hypotheses that consumers become more price and promotion sensitive over time because of reduced advertising and increased promotions.

In recent years, manufacturers have become increasingly disposed toward the use of sales promotions, often at the cost of advertising. Yet the long-term implications of these changes for brand profitability remain unclear. In this paper, we seek to offer insights into this important issue. We consider the questions of i) whether it is more desirable to advertise or promote, ii) whether it is better to use frequent, shallow promotions or infrequent, deep promotions, and iii) how changes in regular prices affect sales relative to increases in price promotions. Additional insights regarding brand equity, the relative magnitude of short- and long-term effects, and the decomposition of advertising and promotion elasticities across choice and quantity decisions are obtained. To address these points, we develop a heteroscedastic, varying-parameter joint probit choice and regression quantity model. Our approach allows consumers' responses to short-term marketing activities to change in response to changes in marketing actions over the long term. We also accommodate the possibility of competitive reactions to policy changes of a brand. The model is estimated for a consumer packaged good category by using over eight years of panel data. The resulting parameters enable us to assess the effects of changes in advertising and promotion policies on sales and profits. Our results show that, in the long term, advertising has a positive effect on “brand equity” while promotions have a negative effect. Furthermore, we find price promotion elasticities to be larger than regular price elasticities in the short term, but smaller than regular price elasticities when long-term effects are considered. Consistent with previous research, we also find that most of the effect of a price cut is manifested in consumers' brand choice decisions in the short term, but when long-term effects are again considered, this result no longer holds. Last, we estimate that the long-term effects of promotions on sales are negative overall, and about two-fifths the magnitude of the positive short-term effects. Finally, making reasonable cost and margin assumptions, we conduct simulations to assess the relative profit impact of long-term changes in pricing, advertising, or promotion policies. Our results show regular price decreases to have a generally negative effect on the long-term profits of brands, advertising to be profitable for two of the brands, and increases in price promotions to be uniformly unprofitable.Long-Term Effects, Promotions, Advertising, Price Sensitivity, Scanner Data, Choice, Purchase Quantity, Switching Regression