We analyze the long-term effects of gender imbalances on female labor force participation, in particular in the market for politicians. We exploit variation in sex ratios-the number of men divided by the number of women in a region-across Germany induced by WWII. In the 1990 elections, women were more likely to run for office in constituencies that had relatively fewer men in 1946. We do not find a significant effect of the sex ratio on the likelihood of a woman winning the election. These results suggest that while women were more likely to run for a seat in parliament in constituencies with lower historical sex ratios, voters were not more inclined to vote for them. Voter demand effects thus do not appear to be as strong as candidate supply effects.
This paper analyses long-term effects of highly unbalanced sex ratios in Germany caused by World War II on fertility outcomes over the life cycle. By using Census data linked with individual biography data, we find that a permanent reduction in the number of men delayed women's first birth. However, the effects crucially depend on at what age fertility of women is evaluated. While women with low sex ratios have fewer children at younger ages, they compensate at later ages. We also find substitution from the extensive towards the intensive margin. Mechanisms are marrying later, accepting lower quality matches and expanding the child-bearing period.
ZusammenfassungDie Bekämpfung der Arbeitslosigkeit ist eines der wichtigsten Ziele der Wirtschaftspolitik. Jährlich wenden Industrienationen beträchtliche Summen an Geldern für Arbeitsmarktprogramme auf. Laut einer vergleichenden Aufstellung der OECD entsprachen im Jahr 2015 die Ausgaben für aktive Arbeitsmarktprogramme in Deutschland beispielsweise 0,6 % des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) und in Frankreich 1 % des BIPs. Vor dem Hintergrund dieser hohen Kosten sind belastbare Auswertungen, die die Wirkung der Programme evaluieren, von immenser Bedeutung. Die Autoren der vorliegenden Studie evaluieren dabei insbesondere den Effekt der Dauer eines Arbeitsmarktprogramms.Flores, Carlos A., Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, Arturo Gonzalez, und Todd C. Neumann (2012), Estimating the Effects of Length of Exposure to Instruction in a Training Program: The Case of Job Corps, Review of Economics and Statistics 94(1), 153–171.
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