Circum-Arctic glacial ice is melting in an unprecedented mode, and release of currently trapped geological methane may act as a positive feedback on ice-sheet retreat during global warming. Evidence for methane release during the penultimate (Eemian, ca. 125 ka) interglacial, a period with less glacial sea ice and higher temperatures than today, is currently absent. Here, we argue that based on foraminiferal isotope studies on drill holes from offshore Svalbard, Norway, methane leakage occurred upon the abrupt Eurasian ice-sheet wastage during terminations of the last (Weichselian) and penultimate (Saalian) glaciations. Progressive increase of methane emissions seems to be first recorded by depleted benthic foraminiferal δ13C. This is quickly followed by the precipitation of methane-derived authigenic carbonate as overgrowth inside and outside foraminiferal shells, characterized by heavy δ18O and depleted δ13C of both benthic and planktonic foraminifera. The similarities between the events observed over both terminations advocate for a common driver for the episodic release of geological methane stocks. Our favored model is recurrent leakage of shallow gas reservoirs below the gas hydrate stability zone along the margin of western Svalbard that can be reactivated upon initial instability of the grounded, marine-based ice sheets. Analogous to this model, with the current acceleration of the Greenland ice melt, instabilities of existing methane reservoirs below and nearby the ice sheet are likely.

In the Mediterranean, climate change and human pressures are expected to significantly impact the availability of surface water resources. In order to quantify these impacts during the last 60 years (1959–2018), we examined the hydro-climatic and land use change evolution in six coastal river basins of the Gulf of Lion in southern France. By combining observed water discharge, gridded climate, mapped land use and agricultural censuses data, we propose a statistical regression model which successfully reproduces the variability of annual water discharge in all basins. Our results clearly demonstrate that, despite important anthropogenic water withdrawals for irrigation, climate change is the major driver for the detected reduction of water discharge. The model can explain 78–88% of the variability of annual water discharge in the study catchments. It requires only two climatic indices that are solely computed from monthly temperature (T) and precipitation (P) data, thus allowing the estimation of the respective contributions of both parameters in the detected changes. According to our results, the study region experienced on average a warming trend of 1.6 °C during the last 60 years which alone was responsible for a reduction of almost 25% of surface water resources.

Abstract. Warming trends are responsible for an observed decrease of water discharge in Southern France (northwestern Mediterranean). Ongoing climate change and the likely increase of water demand threaten the availability of water resources over the coming decades. Drought indices like the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) are increasingly used in climate characterization studies, but little is known about the relationships between these indices, water resources and the overall atmospheric circulation patterns. In this study, we investigate the relationships between the RDI drought index, water discharge and four atmospheric teleconnection patterns (TPs) for six coastal river basins in southern France, both for the historical period of the last 60 years and for a worst-case climatic scenario (RCP 8.5) reaching the year 2100. We combine Global and Regional Climate Model (CGM and RCM, respectively) outputs with a set of observed climatic and hydrological data in order to investigate the past relationships between RDI, water discharge and TPs and to project their potential evolutions in space and time. Results indicate that annual water discharge can be reduced by −49/−88 % by the end of the century under the extreme climate scenario conditions. Due to unequal links with TPs, the hydro-climatic evolution is unevenly distributed within the study area. Indeed a clustering analysis performed with the RDI time series detects two major climate clusters, separating the eastern and western part of the study region. The former indicates stronger relationships with the Atlantic TPs (e.g. the NAO and the Scand patterns) whereas the latter is more closely related to the Mediterranean TPs (MO and WeMO). The future climate simulations predict an antagonistic evolution in both clusters which are likely driven by decreasing trends of Scand and WeMO. The former provokes a general tendency of lower P in both clusters during spring, summer and autumn, whereas the latter might partly compensate this evolution in the eastern cluster during autumn and winter. However, compared to observations, representation of the Mediterranean TPs WeMO and MO in the considered climate models is less satisfactory compared to the Atlantic TPs NAO and Scand, and further improvement of the model simulations therefore requires better representations of the Mediterranean TPs.

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