Binary file ES_Abstracts_Final_ECDC.txt matches

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic cancer is one of the main cancer-related causes of death in developed countries, and one of the most lethal malignant neoplasms. This type of cancer is classified as the ninth most frequent in the world. OBJECTIVE: Analyze temporal trends for pancreatic cancer in Brazil in the period 2000-2014 and calculate mortality projections for the period 2015-2029. METHODS: Ecological study, with temporal series, based on information provided by the Brazilian Mortality Information System. Analysis included deaths due to pancreatic malignant neoplasms in Brazil in the period 2000-2014, and analyzed according to sex, age group and Brazilian geographic regions. Projections were made until 2029 in five-year periods, calculated in Nordpred (within the R software). Mortality trends were analyzed by Joinpoint regression. RESULTS: Between 2000 and 2014, there were 112,533 deaths due to pancreatic cancer in Brazil. Age-standardised rates was 5.1 deaths/100,000 men and 3.81 deaths/100,000 women. The highest rates were registered for the Midwest region, for both genders. Projections indicated that for the five-year period 2025-2029 there will be increased mortality rates for men in the Northeast and Midwest regions. Joinpoint analysis for Brazil did not reveal significant increases for women (APC=0.4%; 95% CI: -0.2; 1.0), however, there was a significant increasing mortality trend for men (APC= 3.7%; 95% CI: 0.6-7.0) in the period 2000-2004, followed by a stable period, an then another period of significant increases after 2010. These figures are mostly explained by variations in the Brazilian demographic structure. CONCLUSION: Pancreatic cancer mortality is unequally distributed across Brazilian regions and genders, and during the next two decades the differences will be accentuated.

Melanoma is the main serious skin cancer, due to its high lethality. This study aimed to make projections and analyze melanoma mortality trends in Brazil. Mortality Information System data were utilized for the period 1998-2012, which were projected until 2032, using the age-period-cohort model, with software R. The analysis of trends was made by Joinpoint regression, with 95% confidence interval, estimating the annual percentage change. It was revealed higher amounts of deaths in men for all regions. Brazilian trends presented reductions in men (APC = -0.4; CI95% = -0.6; -0.1; p < 0.01) and in women (APC = -0.8; CI95% = -0.9; -0.7; p < 0.01). The Midwest region presented increases for both sexes, while the Southeast region presented reducing trends for both sexes. In the North, there was stability for men and increases followed by stability in women, while the South presented reductions in men and stability in women; finally, the Northeast revealed one joinpoint per sex, with an increase followed by stability in men, and stability followed by reducing trends in women. The highest rates of the country were found in the South and Southeast regions, however, with reducing trends throughout time. Higher mortality trends in men were associated with later diagnoses in this group.

Aim: To analyse trends in HIV testing, serial HIV prevalence and HIV incidence among people who underwent voluntary testing in a Center for AIDS Prevention in Valencia, Spain. Methods: Open cohort study including all subjects who went to the Center for AIDS Prevention from 1988 to 2003. Information on sociodemographic variables and HIV test results was collected. Serial prevalence and incidence rates were calculated, and joinpoint regression was used to identify changes in trends over time.Results: 21 241 subjects were analysed; 67% men, 27% injecting drug users (IDUs), 43% heterosexuals and 13% men who have sex with men (MSM). From 1988 to 1990, IDUs accounted for 57% of clinic attenders, decreasing to 14% by 1997-2003, accompanied by an increase in heterosexuals. Overall, HIV prevalence for the whole period was 15%, dropping from 35% to ,10% after 1999 and to 3% by 2003, when HIV prevalence was 26% in IDUs, 6% in MSM and 2% in heterosexuals. Total HIV incidence was 2.5%. From 1988 to 1990, HIV incidence ranged from 6% to 8%, and a gradual and progressive decline observed from 1990 onwards. From 1995 onwards, HIV incidence was ,2%. The highest incidence rate is seen in IDUs, 7-12% in the first period and 4-5% at the end. Among MSM, a change in the decreasing trend is seen by 1998, and increases in incidence are detected by 2002-3. Conclusions: Serial HIV prevalence has markedly decreased from 1988 in all transmission categories, although it is still high. With regard to HIV incidence, the drop has been marked too, although a worrying increase, that requires further follow-up, has been detected in MSM in the past 2 years.

To measure trends in HIV incidence and serial prevalence by sex in a intravenous drug users (IDUs) and heterosexuals (HT) cohort recruited in a counselling centre in Valencia (1988-2005). Serial prevalence and incidence rates were calculated and modelled by logistic and Poisson regression respectively. 5948 IDUs and 13343 HT were recruited. Prevalence was higher among female IDUs (46% vs. 41%), and female HT (4.1% vs. 2%). For IDUs, an interaction (P = 0.005) between sex and calendar was detected. Age-adjusted prevalence showed faster yearly decline in men (OR = 0.87 95%CI: 0.85-0.88) than in women (OR = 0.91 95%CI: 0.88-0.93). Incidence was higher in female IDUs (9.79% p-y) than in men, (5.38% p-y) with an annual decrease for both of 11%. HIV incidence was higher in female HT (0.62% p-y) compared to men 0.23% p-y with a 21% yearly decline. Gender differences in HIV prevalence and incidence trends have been detected. Women showed an increased vulnerability to infection in a country whose HIV epidemic has been largely driven by IDUs.