Climate change and variability influence temperature and rainfall, which impact vector abundance and the dynamics of vector-borne disease transmission. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. Mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue fever, are primarily transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Freshwater availability and temperature affect dengue vector populations via a variety of biological processes and thus influence the ability of mosquitoes to effectively transmit disease. However, the effect of droughts, floods, heat waves, and cold waves is not well understood. Using vector, climate, and dengue disease data collected between 2013 and 2019 in Kenya, this retrospective cohort study aims to elucidate the impact of extreme rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and the risk of arboviral infections. To define extreme periods of rainfall and land surface temperature (LST), we calculated monthly anomalies as deviations from long-term means (1983–2019 for rainfall, 2000–2019 for LST) across four study locations in Kenya. We classified extreme climate events as the upper and lower 10% of these calculated LST or rainfall deviations. Monthly Ae. aegypti abundance was recorded in Kenya using four trapping methods. Blood samples were also collected from children with febrile illness presenting to four field sites and tested for dengue virus using an IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). We found that mosquito eggs and adults were significantly more abundant one month following an abnormally wet month. The relationship between mosquito abundance and dengue risk follows a non-linear association. Our findings suggest that early warnings and targeted interventions during periods of abnormal rainfall and temperature, especially flooding, can potentially contribute to reductions in risk of viral transmission.

Objective To evaluate pregnancy and neonatal outcomes, disease severity, and mother‐to‐child transmission of pregnant women with Chikungunya infection (CHIKV). Design Retrospective observational study. Setting Grenada. Population Women who gave birth during a Chikungunya outbreak between January 2014 and September 2015 were eligible. Methods This descriptive study investigated 731 mother‐infant pairs who gave birth during a CHIKV outbreak. Women and infants underwent serological testing for CHIKV by ELISA. Main outcome measures Primary outcomes: composite pregnancy complication (abruption, vaginal bleeding, preterm labour/cervical incompetence, cesarean delivery for fetal distress/abruption/placental abnormality or delivery for fetal distress) and composite neonatal morbidity. Results Of 416 mother‐infant pairs, 150 (36%) had CHIKV during pregnancy, 135 (33%) had never had CHIKV, and 131 (31%) had CHIKV outside of pregnancy. Mean duration of joint pain was shorter among women infected during pregnancy (μ = 898 days, σ = 277 days) compared with infections outside of pregnancy (μ = 1064 days, σ = 244 days) (P < 0.0001). Rates of pregnancy complications (RR = 0.76, P = 0.599), intrapartum complications (RR = 1.50, P = 0.633), and neonatal outcomes were otherwise similar. Possible mother‐to‐child transmission occurred in two (1.3%) mother‐infant pairs and two of eight intrapartum infections (25%). Conclusion CHIKV infection during pregnancy may be protective against long‐term joint pain sequelae that are often associated with acute CHIKV infection. Infection during pregnancy did not appear to pose a risk for pregnancy complications or neonatal health, but maternal infection just prior to delivery might have increased risk of mother‐to‐child transmission of CHIKV. Tweetable abstract Chikungunya infection did not increase risk of pregnancy complications or adverse neonatal outcomes, unless infection was just prior to delivery.