Ecological forecasting provides a powerful set of methods for predicting short‐ and long‐term change in living systems. Forecasts are now widely produced, enabling proactive management for many applied ecological problems. However, despite numerous calls for an increased emphasis on prediction in ecology, the potential for forecasting to accelerate ecological theory development remains underrealized. Here, we provide a conceptual framework describing how ecological forecasts can energize and advance ecological theory. We emphasize the many opportunities for future progress in this area through increased forecast development, comparison and synthesis. Our framework describes how a forecasting approach can shed new light on existing ecological theories while also allowing researchers to address novel questions. Through rigorous and repeated testing of hypotheses, forecasting can help to refine theories and understand their generality across systems. Meanwhile, synthesizing across forecasts allows for the development of novel theory about the relative predictability of ecological variables across forecast horizons and scales. We envision a future where forecasting is integrated as part of the toolset used in fundamental ecology. By outlining the relevance of forecasting methods to ecological theory, we aim to decrease barriers to entry and broaden the community of researchers using forecasting for fundamental ecological insight.
Low-level addition of dissolved organic carbon increases basal ecosystem function in a boreal headwater stream.Ecosphere 8(4):e01739. 10. 1002/ecs2.1739 Abstract. Comprehension of basic stream ecosystem function relies on an understanding of aquaticterrestrial linkages. One major component of such linkages is the incorporation of landscape-derived energy and nutrients into the aquatic food web via microbes. In many boreal streams, wetlands and alder are known to be primary sources of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), respectively. To simulate the influence of the highly labile portion of wetland-derived DOC subsidies on microbial production and ecosystem processes in a stream with high landscape-derived nutrient inputs, we enriched a boreal headwater stream situated in a high-alder, low-wetland cover catchment (i.e., high DIN, low DOC) with low levels (~0.25 mg/L) of labile DOC (as acetate-C) for 9 weeks. We compared nutrient uptake, bacterial biomass production, and photosynthesis of periphyton and ecosystem metabolism in physicochemically similar upstream (reference) and downstream (treatment) reaches. DIN uptake was greater in the treatment than in reference reach on six out of nine dates during the dosing period. Bacterial biomass production positively responded to C enrichment. Ecosystem respiration increased up tõ 50% after dosing began. Gross primary production responded positively to DOC enrichment early in the study when riparian vegetation did not limit light availability, but negatively later on in the growing season. We conclude that even low levels of labile DOC may act as a strong subsidy to headwater stream ecosystems, particularly those with high levels of DIN inputs from alder. Headwater streams influenced by high contributions of both alder and wetlands may represent biogeochemical hotspots, and these landscape features should be viewed as vital and complementary in their roles for ecosystem function.
The effects of resource quality on ecosystems can shift through time based on preferential use and elemental needs of biotic consumers. For example, leaf litter decomposition rates are strongly controlled by initial litter quality, where labile litter is processed and depleted more quickly than recalcitrant litters. We examined the effect of this processing continuum on stream nutrient dynamics. We added one of four different litter compositions differing in litter quality (cottonwood [Populus deltoides], labile; sycamore [Platanus occidentalis], recalcitrant; bur oak [Quercus macrocarpa], recalcitrant; and mixed [equivalent mixture of previous three species]) to 12 large (c. 20 m long, with riffle, glide and pool sections) outdoor stream mesocosms to assess the effect of litter species composition on whole‐stream nutrient uptake. Nutrients were dosed once weekly for 8 weeks to measure uptake of NH4–N, NO3–N, and PO4–P. We also measured changes in litter C, N, and P content on days 28 and 56 of the study. Nutrient uptake rates were highly variable, but occasionally very different among litter treatments (c. 5× between highest and lowest uptake rates by species). Uptake rates were generally greatest in cottonwood (labile) streams early in the study. However, during the last 4 weeks of the study, bur oak streams (recalcitrant) took up more nutrients than cottonwood streams, resulting in more cumulative NO3–N uptake in bur oak than in cottonwood streams. Cumulative NO3–N uptake was greater in mixed streams than expected (non‐additive) on two dates of measurement, but was generally additive. Changes in litter nutrient content largely corroborated nutrient uptake patterns, suggesting strong N immobilisation early in the study and some N mineralisation later in the study. P was strongly retained by most litters, but especially bur oak. Nutrient content of litter also largely changed additively, suggesting minimal evidence for non‐additive diversity effects on nutrient source/sink status. Our results demonstrate that litter species identity can have whole‐ecosystem effects on stream nutrient dynamics, with important implications for the form and fate of nutrients exported downstream. Further, diverse litter assemblages may serve as temporal stabilisers of ecosystem processes, such as nutrient sequestration, due to microbial nutrient requirements and differential decomposition rates, or the classic litter processing continuum.
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