Incubation period is an important parameter to inform quarantine period and to study transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis on published estimates of the incubation period distribution of COVID-19, and showed that the pooled median of the point estimates of the mean, median and 95 th percentile for incubation period are 6.3 days (range: 1.8 to 11.9 days), 5.4 days (range: 2.0 to 17.9 days) and 13.1 days (range: 3.2 to 17.8 days) respectively. Estimates of the mean and 95 th percentile of the incubation period distribution were considerably shorter before the epidemic peak in China compared to after the peak, and variation was also noticed for different choices of methodological approach in estimation. Our findings implied that corrections may be needed before directly applying estimates of incubation period into control of or further studies on emerging infectious diseases.

Summary Background Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading cause of acute lower respiratory tract infections and a key driver of childhood mortality. Previous RSV burden of disease estimates used hospital-based surveillance data and modelled, rather than directly measured, community deaths. Given this uncertainty, we conducted a 3-year post-mortem prevalence study among young infants at a busy morgue in Lusaka, Zambia—the Zambia Pertussis RSV Infant Mortality Estimation (ZPRIME) study. Methods Infants were eligible for inclusion if they were aged between 4 days and less than 6 months and were enrolled within 48 h of death. Enrolment occurred mainly at the University Teaching Hospital of the University of Zambia Medical School (Lusaka, Zambia), the largest teaching hospital in Zambia. We extracted demographic and clinical data from medical charts and official death certificates, and we conducted verbal autopsies with the guardian or next of kin. RSV was identified using reverse transcriptase quantitative PCR and stratified by age, time of year, and setting (community vs facility deaths). By combining the PCR prevalence data with syndromic presentation, we estimated the proportion of all infant deaths that were due to RSV. Findings The ZPRIME study ran from Aug 31, 2017, to Aug 31, 2020, except for from April 1 to May 6, 2020, during which data were not collected due to restrictions on human research at this time (linked to COVID-19). We enrolled 2286 deceased infants, representing 79% of total infant deaths in Lusaka. RSV was detected in 162 (7%) of 2286 deceased infants. RSV was detected in 102 (9%) of 1176 community deaths, compared with 10 (4%) of 236 early facility deaths (<48 h from admission) and 36 (5%) of 737 late facility deaths (≥48 h from admission). RSV deaths were concentrated in infants younger than 3 months (116 [72%] of 162 infants), and were clustered in the first half of each year and in the poorest and most densely populated Lusaka townships. RSV caused at least 2·8% (95% CI 1·0–4·6) of all infant deaths and 4·7% (1·3–8·1) of community deaths. Interpretation RSV was a major seasonal cause of overall infant mortality, particularly among infants younger than 3 months of age. Because most RSV deaths occurred in the community and would have been missed through hospital-based surveillance, the global burden of fatal RSV has probably been underestimated. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

ObjectiveTo improve access for hip fracture patients to surgery within 48 h of presentation to the Emergency Department, and to increase the number of patients receiving pre-operative orthogeriatric review, through streamlining an existing hip fracture patient pathway.DesignA pre–post design involving a multi-disciplinary team use of the Define, Measure, Analyse, Improve and Control framework integral to Lean Six Sigma (LSS) methodology, to assess and adapt the existing hip fracture pathway from presentation to Emergency Department to the initiation of surgery.SettingA 600-bed teaching hospital in Ireland.ParticipantsNursing, medical, administrative and physiotherapy staff working across Emergency Medicine, Orthogeriatrics and Orthopaedic Specialities and Project management.InterventionsLSS methodology was used to redesign an existing pathway, improving patient access to ortho-geriatrician assessment, pain relief and surgery in line with the Irish Hip Fracture Data Base Key performance indicators.Main Outcome MeasuresAccess to pain relief, access to surgery and volume of patients receiving ortho-geriatric assessment.ResultsThe percentage of patients undergoing surgery within 48 h of presentation to Emergency Department increased from 55% to 79% at 3 months, and to 85% at 6 months. Improvements were also achieved in the secondary performance metrics relevant to quality of patient care. All care pathway changes were cost neutral.ConclusionsHip fracture surgery within 48 h of presentation to hospital is a recognized standard of hip fracture care associated with decreased length of stay and decreased mortality. With respect to this performance metric, this intervention has contributed to improved patient outcomes.

Purpose Clinical pathways for low back pain (LBP) have potential to improve clinical outcomes and health service efficiency. This systematic review aimed to synthesise the evidence for clinical pathways for LBP and/or radicular leg pain from primary to specialised care and to describe key pathway components. Methods Electronic database searches (CINAHL, MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, EMBASE) from 2006 onwards were conducted with further manual and citation searching. Two independent reviewers conducted eligibility assessment, data extraction and quality appraisal. A narrative synthesis of findings is presented. Results From 18,443 identified studies, 28 papers met inclusion criteria. Pathways were developed primarily to address over-burdened secondary care services in high-income countries and almost universally used interface services with a triage remit at the primary-secondary care boundary. Accordingly, evaluation of healthcare resource use and patient flow predominated, with interface services associated with enhanced service efficiency through decreased wait times and appropriate use of consultant appointments. Low quality study designs, heterogeneous outcomes and insufficient comparative data precluded definitive conclusions regarding clinical- and cost-effectiveness. Pathways demonstrated basic levels of care integration across the primary-secondary care boundary. Conclusions The limited volume of research evaluating clinical pathways for LBP/radicular leg pain and spanning primary and specialised care predominantly used interface services to ensure appropriate specialised care referrals with associated increased efficiency of care delivery. Pathways demonstrated basic levels of care integration across healthcare boundaries. Well-designed randomised controlled trials to explore the potential of clinical pathways to improve clinical outcomes, deliver cost-effective, guideline-concordant care and enhance care integration are required.

Background Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of infant deaths. Its epidemiology in low- and middle-income countries is poorly understood. Risk factors associated with RSV-associated infant deaths that occur in community settings are incompletely known. Methods Community deaths for infants aged 4 days to 6 months were identified during a 3-year postmortem RSV prevalence study at the main city morgue in Lusaka, Zambia, where 80% of deaths are registered. This analysis focuses on the subset of deaths for which an abbreviated verbal autopsy was available and intended to sort deaths into respiratory or nonrespiratory causes by clinical adjudication. Posterior nasopharyngeal swab samples were collected within 48 hours of death and tested for RSV using quantitative reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction. Associations between potential risk factors were determined as relative risks with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results We prospectively enrolled 798 community infant deaths with verbal autopsies and RSV laboratory results, of which 62 results were positive. The mean age of the infants was 10 weeks, and 41.4% of them were male. Of all deaths, 44% were attributed to respiratory causes. RSV was detected in 7.8% of the community infants and was significantly associated with respiratory deaths (risk ratio, 4.0 [95% CI, 2.2–7.1]). Compared with older infants, those aged 0–8 weeks had a 2.83 (95% CI, 1.30–6.15) increased risk of dying with RSV. The risk of RSV for the 0–8-week age group increased to 5.24 (1.56–33.14) with adjustment for demographics, parental education, and geography. RSV deaths were increased with domiciliary overcrowding and were concentrated in poor and dense neighborhoods in Lusaka (risk ratio, 2.00 [95% CI, 1.22–3.27]). Conclusion RSV is a significant contributor to community respiratory deaths in this population, particularly in the first 3 months of life and in the more poor and dense parts of Lusaka.