Near the tropical‐temperate transition zone, warming winter temperatures are expected to facilitate the poleward range expansion of freeze‐sensitive tropical organisms. In coastal wetlands of eastern and central North America, freeze‐sensitive woody plants (mangroves) are expected to expand northward into regions currently dominated by freeze‐tolerant herbaceous salt marsh plants. To advance understanding of mangrove range expansion, there is a need to refine temperature thresholds for mangrove freeze damage, mortality and recovery. We integrated data from 38 sites spread across the mangrove range edge in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of North America, including data from a regional collaborative network – the Mangrove Migration Network. In 2018, an extreme freeze event affected 60% of these sites, with minimum temperatures ranging from 0 to −7°C. We used temperature and vegetation data from before and after the freeze to quantify temperature thresholds for leaf damage, mortality and biomass recovery of the black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) – the most freeze‐tolerant mangrove species in North America. For A. germinans individuals near their northern range limit, our results indicate that temperature thresholds for leaf damage are close to −4°C, but temperature thresholds for mortality are closer to −7°C. Thresholds are expected to be warmer for more southern A. germinans individuals and for the other two common mangrove species in the region (Laguncularia racemosa and Rhizophora mangle). Regenerative buds allowed A. germinans to resprout and recover quickly from above‐ground freeze damage. Hence, biomass recovery levels during the first post‐freeze growing season were 90%, 78%, 62% and 45% for temperatures of −4, −5, −6 and −7°C, respectively. Due to a combination of vigorous resprouting and new recruitment from propagules, we expect full recovery at most sites within 1–3 years, assuming no further freeze events. Synthesis. To improve predictions of tropical range expansion in response to climate change, there is a need to better understand tropical species’ responses to winter temperature extremes. Collectively, our results refine temperature thresholds for A. germinans freeze damage, mortality and recovery, which can improve predictions of mangrove range expansion and coastal wetland ecological transformations in a warming climate.

No abstract

Climate change is transforming ecosystems and affecting ecosystem goods and services. Along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States, the frequency and intensity of extreme freeze events greatly influence whether coastal wetlands are dominated by freeze‐sensitive woody plants (mangrove forests) or freeze‐tolerant grass‐like plants (salt marshes). In response to warming winters, mangroves have been expanding and displacing salt marshes at varying degrees of severity in parts of north Florida, Louisiana, and Texas. As winter warming accelerates, mangrove range expansion is expected to increasingly modify wetland ecosystem structure and function. Because there are differences in the ecological and societal benefits that salt marshes and mangroves provide, coastal environmental managers are challenged to anticipate the effects of mangrove expansion on critical wetland ecosystem services, including those related to carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, storm protection, erosion reduction, water purification, fisheries support, and recreation. Mangrove range expansion may also affect wetland stability in the face of extreme climatic events and rising sea levels. Here, we review the current understanding of the effects of mangrove range expansion and displacement of salt marshes on wetland ecosystem services in the southeastern United States. We also identify critical knowledge gaps and emerging research needs regarding the ecological and societal implications of salt marsh displacement by expanding mangrove forests. One consistent theme throughout our review is that there are ecological trade‐offs for consideration by coastal managers. Mangrove expansion and marsh displacement can produce beneficial changes in some ecosystem services, while simultaneously producing detrimental changes in other services. Thus, there can be local‐scale differences in perceptions of the impacts of mangrove expansion into salt marshes. For very specific local reasons, some individuals may see mangrove expansion as a positive change to be embraced, while others may see mangrove expansion as a negative change to be constrained.

The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is responsible for the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Majority of COVID-19 patients have mild disease but about 20% of COVID-19 patients progress to severe disease. These patients end up in the intensive care unit (ICU) with clinical manifestations of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and sepsis. The formation of neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) has also been associated with severe COVID-19. Understanding of the immunopathology of COVID-19 is critical for the development of effective therapeutics. In this article, we discuss evidence indicating that severe COVID-19 has clinical presentations consistent with the definitions of viral sepsis. We highlight the role of neutrophils and NETs formation in the pathogenesis of severe COVID-19. Finally, we highlight the potential of therapies inhibiting NETs formation for the treatment of COVID-19.

The US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) has initiated a re-envisioned approach for providing decision makers with the best available science and synthesis of that information, called the Species Status Assessment (SSA), for endangered species decision making. The SSA report is a descriptive document that provides decision makers with an assessment of the current and predicted future status of a species. These analyses support all manner of decisions under the US Endangered Species Act, such as listing, reclassification, and recovery planning. Novel scientific analysis and predictive modeling in SSAs could be an important part of rooting conservation decisions in current data and cutting edge analytical and modeling techniques. Here, we describe a novel analysis of available data to assess the current condition of eastern black rail Laterallus jamaicensis jamaicensis across its range in a dynamic occupancy analysis. We used the results of the analysis to develop a site occupancy projection model where the model parameters (initial occupancy, site persistence, colonization) were linked to environmental covariates, such as land management and land cover change (sea-level rise, development, etc.). We used the projection model to predict future status under multiple sea-level rise and habitat management scenarios. Occupancy probability and site colonization were low in all analysis units, and site persistence was also low, suggesting low resiliency and redundancy currently. Extinction probability was high for all analysis units in all simulated scenarios except one with significant effort to preserve existing habitat, suggesting low future resiliency and redundancy. With the results of these data analyses and predictive models, the USFWS concluded that protections of the Endangered Species Act were warranted for this subspecies.