Projections of greater interannual and intrannual climate variability, including increasing temperatures, longer and more intense drought periods, and more extreme precipitation events, present growing challenges for agricultural production in the Southern Plains of the USA. We assess agricultural vulnerabilities within this region to support identification and development of adaptation strategies at regional to local scales, where many management decisions are made. Exposure to the synergistic effects of warming, such as fewer and more intense precipitation events and greater overall weather variability, will uniquely affect rain-fed and irrigated cropping, high-value specialty crops, extensive and intensive livestock production, and forestry. Although the sensitivities of various agricultural sectors to climatic stressors can be difficult to identify at regional scales, we summarize that crops irrigated from the Ogallala aquifer possess a high sensitivity; rangeland beef cattle production a low sensitivity; and rain-fed crops, forestry, and specialty crops intermediate sensitivities. Numerous adaptation strategies have been identified, including drought contingency planning, increased soil health, improved forecasts and associated decision support tools, and implementation of policies and financial instruments for risk management. However, the extent to which these strategies are adopted is variable and influenced by both biophysical and socioeconomic considerations. Inadequate local-and regional-scale climate risk and resilience information suggests that climate vulnerability research and climate adaptation approaches need to include bottom-up approaches such as learning networks and peer-to-peer communication.
Many semi‐arid plant communities in western North America are dominated by big sagebrush. These ecosystems are being reduced in extent and quality due to economic development, invasive species, and climate change. These pervasive modifications have generated concern about the long‐term viability of sagebrush habitat and sagebrush‐obligate wildlife species (notably Greater Sage‐Grouse), highlighting the need for better understanding of the future big sagebrush distribution, particularly at the species' range margins. The leading and trailing edges of potential climate‐driven distribution shifts are likely to be areas most sensitive to climate change. Although several processes contribute to distribution shifts, regeneration is a fundamental requirement, especially for species with episodic regeneration patterns, such as big sagebrush. We used a process‐based regeneration model for big sagebrush to simulate potential germination and seedling survival in response to climatic and edaphic conditions. We estimated current and future regeneration under 2070–2099 CMIP5 climate conditions at trailing and leading edges that were previously identified using traditional species distribution models. Our results supported expectations of increased probability of regeneration at the leading edge and decreased probability at the trailing edge compared to current levels. Our simulations indicated that soil water dynamics at the leading edge will become more similar to the typical seasonal ecohydrological conditions observed within the current range of big sagebrush. At the trailing edge, increased winter and spring dryness represented a departure from conditions typically supportive of big sagebrush. Our results highlighted that minimum and maximum daily temperatures as well as soil water recharge and summer dry periods are important constraints for big sagebrush regeneration. We observed reliable changes in areas identified as trailing and leading edges, consistent with previous predictions. However, we also identified potential local refugia within the trailing edge, mostly at higher elevation sites. Decreasing regeneration probability at the trailing edge suggests that it will be difficult to preserve and/or restore big sagebrush in these areas. Conversely, increasing regeneration probability at the leading edge suggests a growing potential for conflicts in management goals between maintaining existing grasslands and croplands by preventing sagebrush expansion versus accepting a shift in plant community composition to sagebrush dominance.
Reclamation is an application of treatment(s) following disturbance to promote succession and accelerate the return of target conditions. Previous studies have framed reclamation in the context of succession by studying its effectiveness in reestablishing late-successional plant communities. Reestablishment of plant communities is especially important and challenging in drylands such as shrub steppe ecosystems where succession proceeds slowly. These ecosystems face threats from climate change, invasive species, altered fire regimes, and land-use change, as well as fossil-fuel extraction and associated disturbance. As such, the need for effective reclamation after this type of energy development is great. However, past research regarding this type of reclamation has focused on mining rather than oil and gas development. To better understand the effect of reclamation on rates of succession in dryland shrub steppe ecosystems, we sampled oil and gas wellpads and adjacent undisturbed big sagebrush plant communities in Wyoming, U.S.A., and quantified the extent of recovery for forbs, grasses, and shrubs on reclaimed and unreclaimed wellpads relative to undisturbed plant communities. Reclamation increased the recovery rate for early-successional types, including combined forbs and grasses and perennial grasses, but did not affect recovery rate of late-successional types, particularly big sagebrush and perennial forbs. Rather, subsequent analyses showed that recovery of late-successional types was affected by soil texture and time since wellpad abandonment. This is consistent with studies in other ecosystems where reclamation has been implemented, suggesting that reclamation may not help reestablish late-successional plant communities more quickly than they would reestablish naturally.
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