[1] Forecasting the time of arrival at Earth of interplanetary shocks following solar metric type II activity is an important first step in the establishment of an operational space weather prediction system. The quality of the forecasts is of utmost importance. The performances of the shock time of arrival (STOA) and interplanetary shock propagation models (ISPM) were previously evaluated by Smith et al. Each model predicts shock arrival time (SAT) at the Earth using real-time metric type II radio frequency drifts and coincident X-ray and optical data for input and L1 satellite observations for verification. Our evaluation of input parameters to the models showed that the accuracy of the solar metric type II radio burst observations as a measure of the initial shock velocity was compromised for those events at greater than 20°solar longitude from central meridian. The HAF model also calculates the interplanetary shock propagation imbedded in a realistic solar wind structure through which the shocks travel and interact. Standard meteorological forecast metrics are used. A variety of statistical comparisons among the three models show them to be practically equivalent in forecasting SAT. Although the HAF kinematic model performance compares favorably with ISPM and STOA, it appears to be no better at predicting SAT than ISPM or STOA. HAFv.2 takes the inhomogeneous, ambient solar wind structure into account and thereby provides a means of sorting event-driven shock arrivals from corotating interaction region (CIR) passage.

Abstract. We have assembled and tested, in real time, a space weather modeling system that starts at the Sun and extends to the Earth through a set of coupled, modular components. We describe recent efforts to improve the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) solar wind model that is presently used in our geomagnetic storm prediction system. We also present some results of these improvement efforts. In a related paper, Akasofu

Continuous ground-based observations of the dayside aurora provide important information, complementary to the in situ measurements from satellites, on plasma transport and electromagnetic coupling between the magnetosheath and the magnetosphere. In this study, observations of the polar cusp/dayside oval aurora from Svalbard and simultaneous observations of the nightside aurora from Poker Flat, Alaska, and the interplanetary magnetic field from satellites are used to identify the ionospheric signatures of plasma transfer from the solar wind to the magnetosphere. The characteristics of motion, spatial scale, time of duration, and repetition frequency of certain dayside auroral forms which occur at the time of large-scale oval expansions (interplanetary magnetic field Bz < 0) are observed to be consistent with the expected optical signatures of plasma transfer through the dayside magnetopause boundary layer, associated with flux transfer events. Similarly, more large-scale (time and space) events are tentatively explained by the quasi steady state reconnection process. 1. 10,063 10,064 SANDHOLT ET AL.: MAGNETOPAUSE PLASMA TRANSFER AND DAYSIDE AURORA geomagnetic coordinates of these stations, Ny ,•lesund (NY•) and Longyearbyen (LYR) are 75.4 ø, 131.4 ø (NY•) and 74.4 ø, 130.9 ø (LYR). By this technique the dayside auroras can be observed within the range •69ø-80 ø geomagnetic latitude at midwinter. Local magnetic noon and solar noon at the recording sites occur at •0830 and • 1100 UT, respectively. An all-sky imaging photometer is operated at Ny fklesund. This instrument has a 155 ø field of view (spanning 1200 km for F-region emissions) and a threshold sensitivity of •30 R at 630 nm [cf. Carlson, 1984]. This instrument and an all-sky camera at LYR [Deehr et al., 1980] provided important supplementary information relative to the meridian profiles recorded by the scanning photometers. Dayside geomagnetic disturbances were recorded by standard magnetometers at the three Svalbard stations: Ny •lesund, Hornsund (73.5 ø geomagnetic latitude), and BjOrnOya (71.

[1] The arrival times at Earth of 166 flare-related shocks identified exiting the Sun (using metric radio drift data) during the maximum phase of Solar Cycle 23, were forecast in near-real time using the Shock Time of Arrival Model (STOA), the Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model (ISPM) and the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry Model (version 2, HAFv.2). These predictions are compared with the arrival at L1 of shocks recorded in plasma and magnetic data aboard the ACE spacecraft. The resulting correspondences are graded following standard statistical methods. Among other parameters, a representative reference metric defined by {(''hits'' + ''correct nulls'') Â 100}/(total number of predictions) is used to describe the success rates of the predictions relative to the measurements. Resulting values for STOA, ISPM, and HAFv.2 were 50%, 57%, and 51%, respectively, for a hit window of ±24 hours. On increasing the statistical sample by 173 events recorded during the rise phase of the same cycle, corresponding success rates of 54%, 60%, and 52%, respectively, were obtained. A 2 test shows these results to be statistically significant at better than the 0.05 level. The effect of decreasing/increasing the size of the hit window is explored and the practical utility of shock predictions considered. Circumstances under which the models perform well/poorly are investigated through the formation, and statistical analysis, of various event subsets, within which the constituent shocks display common characteristics. The results thereby obtained are discussed in detail in the context of the limitations that affect some aspects of the data utilized in the models.

The “Halloween” epoch from 19 October to 20 November 2003 was marked by 19 major solar flares that were accompanied by metric type II radio bursts. Several of these flares were followed by major geomagnetic storms. The radio bursts were used in real time because they imply coronal and interplanetary transport. Most of these events were also associated with halo (or partial halo) coronal mass ejections (CMEs). A continuing, widely distributed, real‐time research project called “fearless forecasts,” using an ensemble of four physics‐based models, has been made of the ensuing shock arrival times since 1997 at the L1 libration point. Model inputs include consideration of the type II shock speed estimates above the flare sites as well as preliminary CME leading edge speeds in the plane of sky. Thus the model ensemble used inputs that were guided by both speed estimates. The rationale for using CME speeds includes the assumption that their high speeds represented the shocks themselves in addition to an assumption concerning their quasi‐sphericity as they left the Sun. We compare the shock arrival predictions to those observed by the solar wind and magnetic field monitors on the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) and the solar wind monitor on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) satellite. Success rates of the models are provided as a metric for this kind of active epoch. These success rates are 79% for one of the considered models using a “hit” window of ±24 hours and 74% when ±15 hours was used. This model demonstrates the importance of simulating both nonhomogeneous background environments and complex shock interactions.

Abstract. A combination of all-sky imagers (ASTV) and meridian-scanning photometers (MSP) was used to identi•y the optical signature of the growth phase, onset, expansion, and recovery of 33 auroral substorms in the Alaskan sector. The discrete auroral arc that brightens at auroral substorm onset was found to be poleward of the diffuse aurora that contains the H emission by a distance of between 10 and 300 km. The average onset time was 2215 magnetic local time (MLT) and the average geographic latitude of the onset arc and the H arc was 64.6 ø and 63.6 ø, respectively. The poleward crossover of the peak H emission occurs shortly after substorm onset, for substorm intensification after 2100 MLT. The peak H emission crosses back to the equatorward position during substorm recovery between 2100 and 0100 MLT. After 0100 MLT the peak H emission remains poleward of the electron-trapping boundary for the rest of the night. During the growth phase the peak H emission moves equatorward more quickly than does the onset arc and monotonically doubles in total intensity during the equatorward motion, in a manner quite unrelated to the fluctuations in brightness of the onset arc.

The large‐scale patterns of ionospheric convection and particle precipitation are described during two intervals of steady magnetospheric convection (SMC) on November 24, 1981. The unique data set used in the analysis includes recordings from the worldwide network of magnetometers and all‐sky cameras, global auroral images from the DE 1 spacecraft, and particle precipitation data from low‐altitude NOAA 6 and NOAA 7 spacecraft. The data show that intense magnetospheric convection continued during more than 10 hours under the steady southward interplanetary magnetic field without any distinct substorm signatures. All data sets available confirmed the stable character of the large‐scale magnetospheric configuration during this period. In particular, the magnetic flux threading the polar cap was stable (within 10%) during 3.5 hours of continued DE 1 observations. The dayside cusp was located at an unusually low latitude (70° CGL). The nightside auroral pattern consisted of two distinct regions. The diffuse aurora in the equatorward half of the expanded (10° wide) auroral oval was well‐separated from the bright, active auroral forms found in the vicinity of the poleward boundary of the oval. The twin‐vortex convection pattern had no signature of the Harang discontinuity; its nightside “convection throat” was spatially coincident with the poleward active auroras. This region of the auroral oval was identified as the primary site of the short‐lived transient activations during the SMC intervals. The energetic particle observations show that the auroral precipitation up to its high‐latitude limit is on closed field lines and that particle acceleration up to > 30‐keV energy starts close to this limit. The isotropic boundaries of the > 30‐keV protons and electrons were found close to each other, separating regions of discrete and diffuse precipitation. This suggests that these precipitation types originate on the very taillike and very dipolelike field lines, respectively.

[1] We describe our 3-D, time-dependent, MHD solar wind model that we recently modified to include the physics of pickup protons from interstellar neutral hydrogen. The model has a time-dependent lower boundary condition, at 0.1 AU, that is driven by source surface map files through an empirical interface module. We describe the empirical interface and its parameter tuning to maximize model agreement with background (quiet) solar wind observations at ACE. We then give results of a simulation study of the famous Halloween 2003 series of solar events. We began with shock inputs from the Fearless Forecast real-time shock arrival prediction study, and then we iteratively adjusted input shock speeds to obtain agreement between observed and simulated shock arrival times at ACE. We then extended the model grid to 5.5 AU and compared those simulation results with Ulysses observations at 5.2 AU. Next we undertook the more difficult tuning of shock speeds and locations to get matching shock arrival times at both ACE and Ulysses. Then we ran this last case again with neutral hydrogen density set to zero, to identify the effect of pickup ions. We show that the speed of interplanetary shocks propagating from the Sun to Ulysses is reduced by the effects of pickup protons. We plan to make further improvements to the model as we continue our benchmarking process to 10 AU, comparing our results with Cassini observations, and eventually on to 100 AU, comparing our results with Voyager 1 and 2 observations.