Using a notational system which records on-the-ball events taking place throughout a soccer match, the game can be broken down into a series of team possessions. To assess the effectiveness of a team possession, a quantitative variable is developed representing the probability of a goal being scored, minus the probability of one being conceded. This variable, called the yield, can be used to evaluate both the expected outcome of a team possession originating in a given situation, as well as the actual outcome of the possession. In this way, the effectiveness of different strategies occurring during the possession can be quanti®ed and compared.
The authors have followed up earlier work on football indicating that the negative binomial distribution would be applicableto certain movements or performances in other ball gamesby testingapplicationsto cricket,icehockey, baseball and lawn tennis. In Poissonian situations good fits were obtained. Poor fits were obtained in situations where individual skill appeared to play a stronger role. Further football data are presented.
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