Projected timescales for the transport of radionuclides from an undisturbed undergound nuclear waste repository to the surface are in the range of tens of thousands to millions of years. Over these timescales major natural and potentially major anthropogenic changes in climate can be expected. As part of the UK disposal safety assessment programme, time-dependent models of the repository environment are being developed. The Climatic Research Unit has undertaken a study of relevant climatic change and climatic effects. This has required assessment of the probable range, succession and duration of major climate states likely to be experienced in the UK over very long timescales, up to 106 yr. Two methodologies have been employed. The first uses the Milankovitch theory, which is considered to be the major cause of the Pleistocene glacial/interglacial cycles. The second involves empirical analysis of the long-term reconstructed climate record: no assumptions about the specific causes or mechanisms are made. A period of 'sub-tropical" climate is included in the sequence to represent a period of anthropogenically-induced greenhouse warming. The climate sequence established using these methods will form the basis for studying related processes, such as erosion and groundwater movement and transfer by vegetation, and their implications for radioactive waste disposal. This has involved the construction of instrumental climate analogues.
The procedures involved in constructing data banks for use in .climatological research are described, using examples from work done in the Climatic Research Unit. Such data banks will normally have two component parts: the meteorological records themselves, and the accompanying documentary and information systems.As a first step, meteorological records appropriate for the intended application of the data bank must be collected and stored, commonly in a computer. Individual records must then be merged into a form convenient for the user. For example, all records from one geographical region may be stored in one computer file. Procedures for quality control of the data are discussed. We emphasize the need to ensure that records are homogeneous~ i.e., that they do not contain spurious jumps or trends caused by non-climatlc factors such as site change or urbanization. Some techniques to correct inhomogeneities in meteorological records are described.The documentation accompanying the meteorological records enables users of the data bank to ~ssess the suitability and reliability of the data. It has three components: first, information on the individual records such as start year, end year, altitude of the site, and geographical position; second, a list of data sources used in the compilation process; third, station hi~ories which detail any known changes in site, instrumentation, etc. The station histories will be added to as work progresses on the data bank, to describe any attempts to homogenize records, and ultimately to give the compiler's assessment of the reliability of each record.User needs must be considered at all stages of data bank design and construction. Only in this way will a well-documented and easy-to-use system result.
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