The full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that:• a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in DRO • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders.Please consult the full DRO policy for further details. AbstractThe heliospheric magnetic field is of pivotal importance in solar and space physics. The field is rooted in the Sun's photosphere, where it has been observed for many years. Global maps of the solar magnetic field based on full-disk magnetograms are commonly used as boundary conditions for coronal and solar wind models. Two primary observational constraints on the models are (1) the open field regions in the model should approximately correspond to coronal holes (CHs) observed in emission and (2) the magnitude of the open magnetic flux in the model should match that inferred from in situ spacecraft measurements. In this study, we calculate both magnetohydrodynamic and potential field source surface solutions using 14 different magnetic maps produced from five different types of observatory magnetograms, for the time period surrounding 2010 July. We have found that for all of the model/map combinations, models that have CH areas close to observations underestimate the interplanetary magnetic flux, or, conversely, for models to match the interplanetary flux, the modeled open field regions are larger than CHs observed in EUV emission. In an alternative approach, we estimate the open magnetic flux entirely from solar observations by combining automatically detected CHs for Carrington rotation 2098 with observatory synoptic magnetic maps. This approach also underestimates the interplanetary magnetic flux. Our results imply that either typical observatory maps underestimate the Sun's magnetic flux, or a significant portion of the open magnetic flux is not rooted in regions that are obviously dark in EUV and X-ray emission.

Global maps of the solar photospheric magnetic flux are fundamental drivers for simulations of the corona and solar wind and therefore are important predictors of geoeffective events. However, observations of the solar photosphere are only made intermittently over approximately half of the solar surface. The Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport (ADAPT) model uses localized ensemble Kalman filtering techniques to adjust a set of photospheric simulations to agree with the available observations. At the same time, this information is propagated to areas of the simulation that have not been observed. ADAPT implements a local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) to accomplish data assimilation, allowing the covariance structure of the flux transport model to influence assimilation of photosphere observations while eliminating spurious correlations between ensemble members arising from a limited ensemble size. We give a detailed account of the implementation of the LETKF into ADAPT. Advantages of the LETKF scheme over previously implemented assimilation methods are highlighted.

1] A new method is presented here to forecast the solar 10.7 cm (2.8 GHz) radio flux, abbreviated F 10.7 , utilizing advanced predictions of the global solar magnetic field generated by a flux transport model. Using indices derived from the absolute value of the solar magnetic field, we find good correlation between the observed photospheric magnetic activity and the observed F 10.7 values. Comparing magnetogram data observed within 6 hours of the F 10.7 measurements during the years 1993 through 2010, the Spearman correlation coefficient, r s , for an empirical model of F 10.7 is found to be 0.98. In addition, we find little change in the empirical model coefficients and correlations between the first and second 9 year intervals of the 18 year period investigated. By evolving solar magnetic synoptic maps forward 1-7 days, this new method provides a realistic estimation of the Earth-side solar magnetic field distribution used to forecast F 10.7 . Spearman correlation values of approximately 0.97, 0.95, and 0.93 are found for 1 day, 3 day, and 7 day forecasts, respectively. The method presented here can be expanded to forecast other space weather parameters, e.g., total solar irradiance and extreme ultraviolet flux. In addition, near-term improvements to the F 10.7 forecasting method, e.g., including far-side magnetic data with solar magnetic flux transport, are discussed.

[1] The solar wind temperature (T) and speed (V) are generally well correlated at $1 AU, except in Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections where this correlation breaks down. We perform a comprehensive analysis of both the temporal and radial variation in the temperature-speed (T-V) relationship of the non-transient wind, and our analysis provides insight into both the causes of the T-V relationship and the sources of the temperature variability. Often at 1 AU the speed-temperature relationship is well represented by a single linear fit over a speed range spanning both the slow and fast wind. However, at times the fast wind from coronal holes can have a different T-V relationship than the slow wind. A good example of this was in 2003 when there was a very large and long-lived outward magnetic polarity coronal hole at low latitudes that emitted wind with speeds as fast as a polar coronal hole. The long-lived nature of the hole made it possible to clearly distinguish that some holes can have a different T-V relationship. In an earlier ACE study, we found that both the compressions and rarefactions T-V curves are linear, but the compression curve is shifted to higher temperatures. By separating compressions and rarefactions prior to determining the radial profiles of the solar wind parameters, the importance of dynamic interactions on the radial evolution of the solar wind parameters is revealed. Although the T-V relationship at 1 AU is often well described by a single linear curve, we find that the T-V relationship continually evolves with distance. Beyond $2.5 AU the differences between the compressions and rarefactions are quite significant and affect the shape of the overall T-V distribution to the point that a simple linear fit no longer describes the distribution well. Since additional heating of the ambient solar wind outside of interaction regions can be associated with Alfvénic fluctuations and the turbulent energy cascade, we also estimate the heating rate radial profile from the solar wind speed and temperature measurements.

From the analysis of low-order GOLF+MDI sectoral modes (ℓ ≤ 3, 6 ≤ n ≤ 15, |m| = ℓ) and LOWL data (ℓ > 3), we derive the radial rotation profile assuming no latitudinal dependance in the solar core. These low-order acoustic modes contain the most statistically significant information about rotation of the deepest solar layers and should be least influenced by internal variability associated with the solar dynamo. After correction of the sectoral splittings for their contamination by the rotation of the higher latitudes, we obtain a flat rotation profile down to 0.2 R ⊙ .