Under global change, populations have four possible responses: ‘migrate, acclimate, adapt or die’ (Gienapp et al. 2008 Climate change and evolution: disentangling environmental and genetic response. Mol. Ecol. 17, 167–178. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-294X.2007.03413.x10.1111/j.1365-294X.2007.03413.x)). The challenge is to predict how much migration, acclimatization or adaptation populations are capable of. We have previously shown that populations from more variable environments are more plastic (Schaum et al. 2013 Variation in plastic responses of a globally distributed picoplankton species to ocean acidification. Nature 3, 298–230. (doi:10.1038/nclimate177410.1038/nclimate1774)), and here we use experimental evolution with a marine microbe to learn that plastic responses predict the extent of adaptation in the face of elevated partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2). Specifically, plastic populations evolve more, and plastic responses in traits other than growth can predict changes in growth in a marine microbe. The relationship between plasticity and evolution is strongest when populations evolve in fluctuating environments, which favour the evolution and maintenance of plasticity. Strikingly, plasticity predicts the extent, but not direction of phenotypic evolution. The plastic response to elevated pCO2 in green algae is to increase cell division rates, but the evolutionary response here is to decrease cell division rates over 400 generations until cells are dividing at the same rate their ancestors did in ambient CO2. Slow-growing cells have higher mitochondrial potential and withstand further environmental change better than faster growing cells. Based on this, we hypothesize that slow growth is adaptive under CO2 enrichment when associated with the production of higher quality daughter cells.
Phytoplankton photosynthesis is a critical flux in the carbon cycle, accounting for approximately 40% of the carbon dioxide fixed globally on an annual basis and fuelling the productivity of aquatic food webs. However, rapid evolutionary responses of phytoplankton to warming remain largely unexplored, particularly outside the laboratory, where multiple selection pressures can modify adaptation to environmental change. Here, we use a decade-long experiment in outdoor mesocosms to investigate mechanisms of adaptation to warming (+4 °C above ambient temperature) in the green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, in naturally assembled communities. Isolates from warmed mesocosms had higher optimal growth temperatures than their counterparts from ambient treatments. Consequently, warm-adapted isolates were stronger competitors at elevated temperature and experienced a decline in competitive fitness in ambient conditions, indicating adaptation to local thermal regimes. Higher competitive fitness in the warmed isolates was linked to greater photosynthetic capacity and reduced susceptibility to photoinhibition. These findings suggest that adaptive responses to warming in phytoplankton could help to mitigate projected declines in aquatic net primary production by increasing rates of cellular net photosynthesis.
Diatoms contribute roughly 20% of global primary production, but the factors determining their ability to adapt to global warming are unknown. Here we quantify the capacity for adaptation to warming in the marine diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana. We find that evolutionary rescue under severe (32 °C) warming is slow, but adaptation to more realistic scenarios where temperature increases are moderate (26 °C) or fluctuate between benign and severe conditions is rapid and linked to phenotypic changes in metabolic traits and elemental composition. Whole-genome re-sequencing identifies genetic divergence among populations selected in the different warming regimes and between the evolved and ancestral lineages. Consistent with the phenotypic changes, the most rapidly evolving genes are associated with transcriptional regulation, cellular responses to oxidative stress and redox homeostasis. These results demonstrate that the evolution of thermal tolerance in marine diatoms can be rapid, particularly in fluctuating environments, and is underpinned by major genomic and phenotypic change.
Diatoms contribute roughly 20% of global primary production, but the factors determining their ability to adapt to global warming are unknown. Here we quantify the capacity for adaptation to warming in the marine diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana. We found that evolutionary rescue under severe warming was slow but adaptation to more realistic scenarios, where temperature increases were moderate or where they fluctuated between benign and severe conditions, was rapid. Adaption to warming was linked to major phenotypic changes in metabolism and elemental composition. Whole genome re-sequencing identified significant genetic divergence both among populations adapted to the different warming regimes and between the evolved and ancestral lineages. Consistent with the phenotypic changes, the most rapidly evolving genes were associated with transcriptional regulation, cellular response to oxidative stress and redox homeostasis. These results demonstrate that evolution of thermal tolerance in marine diatoms can be rapid, particularly in fluctuating environments, and is underpinned by major genomic and phenotypic divergence.
The efficiency of carbon sequestration by the biological pump could decline in the coming decades because respiration tends to increase more with temperature than photosynthesis. Despite these differences in the short‐term temperature sensitivities of photosynthesis and respiration, it remains unknown whether the long‐term impacts of global warming on metabolic rates of phytoplankton can be modulated by evolutionary adaptation. We found that respiration was consistently more temperature dependent than photosynthesis across 18 diverse marine phytoplankton, resulting in universal declines in the rate of carbon fixation with short‐term increases in temperature. Long‐term experimental evolution under high temperature reversed the short‐term stimulation of metabolic rates, resulting in increased rates of carbon fixation. Our findings suggest that thermal adaptation may therefore have an ameliorating impact on the efficiency of phytoplankton as primary mediators of the biological carbon pump.
Marine phytoplankton can evolve rapidly when confronted with aspects of climate change because of their large population sizes and fast generation times. Despite this, the importance of environment fluctuations, a key feature of climate change, has received little attention-selection experiments with marine phytoplankton are usually carried out in stable environments and use single or few representatives of a species, genus or functional group. Here we investigate whether and by how much environmental fluctuations contribute to changes in ecologically important phytoplankton traits such as C:N ratios and cell size, and test the variability of changes in these traits within the globally distributed species Ostreococcus. We have evolved 16 physiologically distinct lineages of Ostreococcus at stable high CO 2 (1031 ± 87 μatm CO 2 , SH) and fluctuating high CO 2 (1012 ± 244 μatm CO 2 , FH) for 400 generations. We find that although both fluctuation and high CO 2 drive evolution, FHevolved lineages are smaller, have reduced C:N ratios and respond more strongly to further increases in CO 2 than do SH-evolved lineages. This indicates that environmental fluctuations are an important factor to consider when predicting how the characteristics of future phytoplankton populations will have an impact on biogeochemical cycles and higher trophic levels in marine food webs.
Understanding how changes in temperature affect interspecific competition is critical for predicting changes in ecological communities with global warming. Here, we develop a theoretical model that links interspecific differences in the temperature dependence of resource acquisition and growth to the outcome of pairwise competition in phytoplankton. We parameterised our model with these metabolic traits derived from six species of freshwater phytoplankton and tested its ability to predict the outcome of competition in all pairwise combinations of the species in a factorial experiment, manipulating temperature and nutrient availability. The model correctly predicted the outcome of competition in 72% of the pairwise experiments, with competitive advantage determined by difference in thermal sensitivity of growth rates of the two species. These results demonstrate that metabolic traits play a key role in determining how changes in temperature influence interspecific competition and lay the foundation for mechanistically predicting the effects of warming in complex, multi-species communities.
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