BackgroundNo clinical trials have assessed the effects or cost-effectiveness of health check strategies to detect and manage vascular disease. We used a mathematical model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of several health check strategies in six European countries.MethodsWe used country-specific data from Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the United Kingdom to generate simulated populations of individuals aged 40–75 eligible for health checks in those countries (e.g. individuals without a previous diagnosis of diabetes, myocardial infarction, stroke, or serious chronic kidney disease). For each country, we used the Archimedes model to compare seven health check strategies consisting of assessments for diabetes, hypertension, lipids, and smoking. For patients diagnosed with vascular disease, treatment was simulated in a standard manner. We calculated the effects of each strategy on the incidence of type 2 diabetes, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), and microvascular complications in addition to quality of life, costs, and cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY).ResultsCompared with current care, health checks reduced the incidence of MACE (6–17 events prevented per 1000 people screened) and diabetes related microvasular complications (5–11 events prevented per 1000 people screened), and increased QALYs (31–59 discounted QALYs) over 30 years, in all countries. The cost per QALY of offering a health check to all individuals in the study cohort ranged from €14903 (France) to cost saving (Poland). Pre-screening the population and offering health checks only to higher risk individuals lowered the cost per QALY. Pre-screening on the basis of obesity had a cost per QALY of €10200 (France) or less, and pre-screening with a non-invasive risk score was similar.ConclusionsA vascular disease health check would likely be cost effective at 30 years in Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the United Kingdom.

This study found that rosuvastatin 20 mg and 40 mg lowers the risk of MACE more than atorvastatin 40 mg and atorvastatin 80 mg. While simulation models cannot replace real-world clinical trials, this study bridges gaps in the evidence, and identifies high risk cohorts that would likely see additional benefit from treatment with rosuvastatin rather than atorvastatin.

PurposeMany patients treated for dyslipidemia do not achieve recommended cholesterol goals despite the widespread availability of effective statins. Pharmaceutical claims show a strong tendency for patients to remain on their initially assigned treatment. With computer simulations, the impact of initial statin treatment decisions on medium- and long-term cardiovascular outcomes were examined.Patients and methodsUsing the Archimedes Model, three treatment scenarios were simulated. Patients initiated treatment with simvastatin (20, 40, or 80 mg), atorvastatin (10, 20, 40, or 80 mg), or rosuvastatin (10, 20, or 40 mg), and periodically intensified treatment. The simulated population consisted of 50,025 patients, aged 45–70 years, with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol exceeding goal. The proportion of patients initiating each dose was calibrated to United States pharmacy claims. Patients not reaching goal intensified the dose of their current statin or switched to an appropriate dose of rosuvastatin at rates matching pharmacy claims. Biomarkers and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) were tracked for 10 years and several high-risk subpopulations were analyzed. Statin models used biomarker effects from the STELLAR (Statin Therapies for Elevated Lipid Levels Compared Across Doses to Rosuvastatin) trial and outcomes data from various trials.ResultsInitiating therapy with rosuvastatin reduced MACE more than simvastatin or atorvastatin. The 5- year relative risk of MACE was 0.906 (95% confidence interval: 0.888–0.923; P < 0.001) for initial treatment with atorvastatin rather than simvastatin, 0.831 (0.812–0.850; P < 0.001) for rosuvastatin rather than simvastatin, and 0.918 (0.898–0.938; P < 0.001) for rosuvastatin rather than atorvastatin. Subgroups with higher MACE incidence experienced greater absolute benefit.ConclusionConsidering observed rates of treatment intensification, initial treatment choices appear to significantly impact medium- and long-term cardiovascular risk. Patients at high cardiovascular risk are good candidates for aggressive initial therapy.

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Managing diabetes and preventing its associated morbidities require active partnerships between physicians and patients. Studies to date lack the level of detail to quantify the degree to which interventions that are more controlled by physicians influence outcomes versus those that are more controlled by patients. Using the Archimedes model, we simulated a thirty-year clinical trial and compared the effects of three sets of interventions over which physicians have progressively less control: compliance with process-of-care standards, such as conducting foot and retinal exams and screening for signs of early kidney disease; control of biomarkers, such as hemoglobin A1c and blood pressure; and lifestyle modifications, such as patients' switching to healthier diets and losing weight. We found that if all US adults diagnosed with type 2 diabetes met quality targets in all of these areas, they would experience a nearly 16 percent increase in quality-adjusted life-years and a nearly 23 percent reduction in fifteen-year mortality over the thirty-year simulation period. Meeting aggressive biomarker targets yielded the most benefit. Meeting conservative biomarker targets came next, followed closely by meeting process-of-care standards. The incremental benefits of complying fully with diet and smoking cessation yielded the least benefit. Thus, through measures more readily within their control, and through collaboration with their patients, physicians have a substantial opportunity to improve outcomes. These findings can inform policy makers' rational resource allocation decisions and the design of programs to improve diabetes care.