One key question regarding current climate models is whether the projection of climate extremes converges to a realistic representation as the spatial and temporal resolutions of the model are increased. Ideally the model extreme statistics should approach a fixed distribution once the resolutions are commensurate with the characteristic length and time scales of the processes governing the formation of the extreme phenomena of interest. In this study, a series of AGCM runs with idealized ‘aquaplanet‐steady‐state’ boundary conditions have been performed with the Community Atmosphere Model CAM3 to investigate the effect of horizontal resolution on climate extreme simulations. The use of the aquaplanet framework highlights the roles of model physics and dynamics and removes any apparent convergence in extreme statistics due to better resolution of surface boundary conditions and other external inputs. Assessed at a same large spatial scale, the results show that the horizontal resolution and time step have strong effects on the simulations of precipitation extremes. The horizontal resolution has a much stronger impact on precipitation extremes than on mean precipitation. Updrafts are strongly correlated with extreme precipitation at tropics at all the resolutions, while positive low‐tropospheric temperature anomalies are associated with extreme precipitation at mid‐latitudes.

[1] Projected changes in the Earth system will likely be manifested in changes in reflected solar radiation. This paper introduces an operational Observational System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) to calculate the signals of future climate forcings and feedbacks in top-of-atmosphere reflectance spectra. The OSSE combines simulations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report for the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) with the MODTRAN radiative transfer code to calculate reflectance spectra for simulations of current and future climatic conditions over the 21st century. The OSSE produces narrowband reflectances and broadband fluxes, the latter of which have been extensively validated against archived CCSM results. The shortwave reflectance spectra contain atmospheric features including signals from water vapor, liquid and ice clouds, and aerosols. The spectra are also strongly influenced by the surface bidirectional reflectance properties of predicted snow and sea ice and the climatological seasonal cycles of vegetation. By comparing and contrasting simulated reflectance spectra based on emissions scenarios with increasing projected and fixed present-day greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations, we find that prescribed forcings from increases in anthropogenic sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols are detectable and are spatially confined to lower latitudes. Also, changes in the intertropical convergence zone and poleward shifts in the subsidence zones and the storm tracks are all detectable along with large changes in snow cover and sea ice fraction. These findings suggest that the proposed NASA Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission to measure shortwave reflectance spectra may help elucidate climate forcings, responses, and feedbacks.

[1] Climate forcing by greenhouse gases and aerosols and climate feedbacks from snow, sea-ice, and clouds all significantly impact the future evolution of the climate system's shortwave energy budget. We examine prospects for tracking changes in these forcings and feedbacks using top-of-atmosphere measurements of shortwave reflected radiation. We quantify the extent to which spectral measurements may reduce the time required to detect changes in the climate the climate system with high statistical confidence relative to conventional broadband measurements. We have developed an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) based on the Community Climate System Model 3.0 for the NASA CLARREO mission and have analyzed forced and unforced simulations of the 21st Century from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessments. We find that changes in the simulated nadir spectral reflectance measurements in the visible window and between near-infrared water-vapor overtone channels under clear-sky conditions are detectible faster than the corresponding changes in broadband albedo, with many trends detectible within a five-year satellite mission lifetime. Under all-sky conditions, the superposition of unforced cloud variability on the secular climate trends lengthens the times required for climate-change detection in both the spectral and broadband data. However, migration of the ITCZ and stratus regions can be detected after 16-18 years of observation while broadband albedo measurements require 33-61 years of observation. We find that measurement uncertainty and instrument drift significantly lengthen detection times for broadband albedo and spectral reflectances in window channels but do not have the same effect for spectral measurements in water vapor bands.