This paper summarizes the fundamental aspects of the development of the Risk Assessment and Management (RAM) approach to define factors of safety for design and reassessment of pipelines and risers in the Bay of Campeche, Mexico. Based on a cost-benefit analysis associated to a particular development and generic type of system, as well as legal regulatory to national requirements, the target reliabilities for the system are defined. These target reliabilities are addressed in four quality attributes of the system: serviceability, safety, durability, and compatibility. The variabilities, uncertainties, and biases associated to the demands and capacities of the pipeline for the design and reassessment criteria are evaluated, and the factors of safety or allowable stress factors for single and combined in-place loadings are determined. The traditional Working Stress Design (WSD) format for guidelines is used here. This format utilizes a nominal “static” loading to define the serviceability response characteristics and strength of the structure.
The paper presents the work carried out by the Instituto Mexicano del Petro´leo (IMP) during the last years, regarding the development of local rules for the design and reassessment of marine pipelines, taking into account environmental and operational conditions in the Gulf of Me´xico, as well as economic implications of these facilities within Mexican social and political fields. The costs for Petro´leos Mexicanos (Pemex) of a possible failure of a marine pipeline are also considered. The results will be incorporated in a Norm of Reference to Pemex being the first regulating national document in this area. This work is based in an extensive risk study of the marine pipelines and risers. The costs are evaluated regarding the failure consequences that could be present in the marine pipelines both during the installation phase as well as during the operation phase. The failure probabilities and the reliability indexes are determined according to the production and the type of product. Using structural reliability theory, a classification by service and safety (CSS) for the marine pipelines is obtained and from that the safety factors for design and evaluation for all the possible loads that may be present during both installation and operation. The methodology used is according to the state of the art and with international codes (API and DNV). The main advantage of the project is to better understand the behavior of the marine pipeline and risers taking into account the geotechnical and ocean characteristics of the Gulf of Me´xico and the costs that would represent for Pemex the possible failure of a structure of this type.
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