This article investigates whether campaign speeches during the US presidential elections can help predict foreign policy behavior. We use speeches made by Donald J. Trump during his bid for president in 2016. We compare the analysis from 2016 with his actual foreign policy decisions during his tenure, 2017-2020. Operational code analysis and leadership traits analysis approaches are used to analyze candidate Trump’s foreign policy beliefs and strategies associated with them. We use Profiler Plus software to conduct content analysis which produces OCA and LTA results. We use three separate datasets to analyze Trump’s beliefs and traits focusing on his general foreign policy speeches, the MENA region, and a third one only about Islamic State and Syria. Our results show that Trump’s profile indicates a foreign policy orientation that avoids involvement in affairs that are perceived as beyond immediate interests. The consistency between his beliefs and traits during the 2016 campaign and his actual foreign policy behavior leads us to conclude that individual level analysis, and specifically OCA and LTA approaches, are useful tools to analyze, explain and predict foreign policy.
The recent Arab uprisings have forced many actors to reconsider their positions regarding Middle Eastern politics. Role theory provides a viable tool to explain changes in actors' foreign policy behaviors, presuming that states' foreign policies are shaped by the ruling elites' foreign policy role conceptions. This article analyzes Turkish foreign policy roles with regard to the Middle East and North Africa before and since the Arab uprisings that began in December 2010. We argue that these uprisings caused Turkey to change its emphasis from roles built on soft power instruments to harder roles requiring material capabilities. We also discuss the implications of this change with reference to theories of international politics.Son dönemde yaşanan Arap ayaklanmaları bölgenin birçok aktörünü Ortadoğu politikalarını gözden geçirmeye zorlamıştır. Devletlerin dış politikalarının yönetici elitlerin dış politika rol tasavvurları tarafından şekillendirildiği varsayımına dayanan rol kuramı, aktörlerin dış politika davranışlarındaki değişimleri açıklamak için uygun bir çerçeve sunmaktadır. Bu makale, 2010'da başlayan Arap ayaklanmalarının öncesi ve sonrasında, Ortadoğu ve Kuzey Afrika bölgelerinde kullanılan Türk dış politikası rollerinin analizini yapmaktadır. Bu çalışma Türkiye'nin Arap ayaklanmaları sonrasında bölgede yumuşak güç üzerine kurulu rollere olan vurgusunu değiştirip, materyal kapasite gerektiren daha sert rolleri ön plana çıkardığını iddia etmektedir. Çalışmanın son bölümünde uluslararası politika kuramları üzerinden bu değişimin ne anlama geldiği tartışılmaktadır
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