The water quality response to implementation of conservation measures across watersheds has been slower and smaller than expected. This has led many to question the efficacy of these measures and to call for stricter land and nutrient management strategies. In many cases, this limited response has been due to the legacies of past management activities, where sinks and stores of P along the landfreshwater continuum mask the effects of reductions in edge-of-field losses of P. Accounting for legacy P along this continuum is important to correctly apportion sources and to develop successful watershed remediation. In this study, we examined the drivers of legacy P at the watershed scale, specifically in relation to the physical cascades and biogeochemical spirals of P along the continuum from soils to rivers and lakes and via surface and subsurface flow pathways. Terrestrial P legacies encompass prior nutrient and land management activities that have built up soil P to levels that exceed crop requirements and modified the connectivity between terrestrial P sources and fluvial transport. River and lake P legacies encompass a range of processes that control retention and remobilization of P, and these are linked to water and sediment residence times. We provide case studies that highlight the major processes and varying timescales across which legacy P continues to contribute P to receiving waters and undermine restoration efforts, and we discuss how these P legacies could be managed in future conservation programs.

Climate and land-use change drive a suite of stressors that shape ecosystems and interact to yield complex ecological responses, i.e. additive, antagonistic and synergistic effects.Currently we know little about the spatial scale relevant for the outcome of such interactions and about effect sizes. This knowledge gap needs to be filled to underpin future land management decisions or climate mitigation interventions, for protecting and restoring freshwater ecosystems. The study combines data across scales from 33 mesocosm experiments with those from 14 river basins and 22 cross-basin studies in Europe producing 174 combinations of paired-stressor effects on a biological response variable. Generalised linear models showed that only one of the two stressors had a significant effect in 39% of the analysed cases, 28% of the paired-stressor combinations resulted in additive and 33% in interactive (antagonistic, synergistic, opposing or reversal) effects. For lakes the frequency of additive and interactive effects was similar for all spatial scales addressed, while for rivers this frequency increased with scale. Nutrient enrichment was the overriding stressor for lakes, generally exceeding those of secondary stressors. For rivers, the effects of nutrient enrichment were dependent on the specific stressor combination and biological response variable. These results vindicate the traditional focus of lake restoration and management on nutrient stress, while highlighting that river management requires more bespoke management solutions.

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Daunt, Francis. 2016. Do early warning indicators consistently predict nonlinear change in longterm ecological data? Journal of Applied Ecology, 53 (3). 666-676. 10.1111/1365-2664.12519 Contact CEH NORA team at noraceh@ceh.ac.ukThe NERC and CEH trademarks and logos ('the Trademarks') are registered trademarks of NERC in the UK and other countries, and may not be used without the prior written consent of the Trademark owner.Page | 1 2. We tested whether long term abundance time series of 55 taxa (126 data sets) across multiple 34 trophic levels in marine and freshwater ecosystems showed: i) significant non-linear change in 35 abundance ("turning points") and ii) significant increases in variance and autocorrelation 36 ("EWIs"). For each data set we then quantified the prevalence of three cases: true positives 37 (EWI and associated turning point), false negatives (turning point but no associated EWI) and 38 false positives (EWI but no turning point).