Recent work on atmospheric rivers (ARs) has led to a characterization of these impactful features as primarily cold-season phenomena. Here, an all-season analysis of AR incidence in the North Pacific basin is performed for the period spanning 1979–2014 using the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis dataset. An occurrence-based detection algorithm is developed and employed to identify and characterize ARs in instantaneous fields of anomalous vertically integrated water vapor transport. The all-season climatology and variability of AR frequencies due to the seasonal cycle, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), and their interactions are presented based on composites of the detected features. The results highlight that ARs exist throughout the year over the North Pacific, although their preferred locations shift substantially throughout the year. This seasonal cycle manifests itself as northward and westward displacement of ARs during the Northern Hemisphere warm seasons, rather than an absolute change in the number of ARs within the domain. It is also shown that changes to the North Pacific mean-state due to ENSO and the MJO may enhance or completely offset the seasonal cycle of AR activity, but that such influences on AR frequencies vary greatly based on location.

Upon landfall, atmospheric rivers (ARs)-plumes of intense water vapor transport-often trigger weather and hydrologic extremes. Presently, no guidance is available to alert decision makers to anomalous AR activity within the subseasonal time scale (~2-5 weeks). Here, we construct and evaluate an empirical prediction scheme for anomalous AR activity based solely on the initial state of two prominent modes of tropical variability: the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The MJO-the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the tropical troposphere-modulates landfalling AR activity along the west coast of North America by exciting large-scale circulation anomalies over the North Pacific. In light of emerging science regarding the modulation of the MJO by the QBO-the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical stratosphere-we demonstrate that the MJO-AR relationship is further influenced by the QBO. Evaluating the prediction scheme over 36 boreal winter seasons, we find skillful subseasonal "forecasts of opportunity" when knowledge of the MJO and the QBO can be leveraged to predict periods of increased or decreased AR activity. Certain MJO and QBO phase combinations provide empirical subseasonal predictive skill for anomalous AR activity that exceeds that of a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. Given the wide-ranging impacts associated with landfalling ARs, even modest gains in the subseasonal prediction of anomalous AR activity may support decision making and benefit numerous sectors of society.

Atmospheric rivers are elongated plumes of intense moisture transport that are capable of producing extreme and impactful weather. Along the West Coast of North America, they occasionally cause considerable mayhem—delivering flooding rains during periods of heightened activity and desiccating droughts during periods of reduced activity. The intrinsic chaos of the atmosphere makes the prediction of atmospheric rivers at subseasonal‐to‐seasonal time scales (3 to 5 weeks) an inherently difficult task. We demonstrate here that the potential exists to advance forecast lead times of atmospheric rivers into subseasonal‐to‐seasonal time scales through knowledge of two of the atmosphere's most prominent oscillations, the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) and the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO). Strong MJO and QBO activity modulates the frequency at which atmospheric rivers strike—offering an opportunity to improve subseasonal‐to‐seasonal forecast models and thereby skillfully predict atmospheric river activity up to 5 weeks in advance.

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) can cause wide‐ranging impacts upon landfall at high northern latitudes, but comparatively little is known about the dynamics supporting these ARs in contrast to their midlatitude counterparts. Here ARs near the U.S. West Coast and the Gulf of Alaska during 1979–2015 are compared. ARs are found to occur in both regions with similar frequency, but with different seasonality. Composited atmospheric conditions from the NASA Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications data set reveal that a broad height anomaly over the northeast Pacific is influential to AR activity in both regions. When a positive height anomaly exists over the northeast Pacific, AR activity is often deflected poleward toward Alaska, while the U.S. West Coast experiences a decrease in AR activity. The opposing relationship also applies; that is, AR activity is decreased near Alaska and increased along the U.S. West Coast in the presence of a negative height anomaly. Quantitatively, nearly 79% of Gulf of Alaska ARs are associated with a positive northeast Pacific height anomaly and 86% of U.S. West Coast ARs are associated with a negative anomaly. Results suggest that this relationship applies across a range of time scales, to include subseasonal and interannual, not just with respect to individual transient waves. Both ARs and height anomalies are found to be associated with Rossby wave breaking, thereby dynamically linking AR activity with broader North Pacific dynamics.

No abstract

No abstract