Markov state models (MSMs) are a powerful framework for analyzing dynamical systems, such as molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, that have gained widespread use over the past several decades. This perspective offers an overview of the MSM field to date, presented for a general audience as a timeline of key developments in the field. We sequentially address early studies that motivated the method, canonical papers that established the use of MSMs for MD analysis, and subsequent advances in software and analysis protocols. The derivation of a variational principle for MSMs in 2013 signified a turning point from expertise-driving MSM building to a systematic, objective protocol. The variational approach, combined with best practices for model selection and open-source software, enabled a wide range of MSM analysis for applications such as protein folding and allostery, ligand binding, and protein-protein association. To conclude, the current frontiers of methods development are highlighted, as well as exciting applications in experimental design and drug discovery.

The arc of drug discovery entails a multiparameter optimization problem spanning vast length scales. The key parameters range from solubility (angstroms) to protein–ligand binding (nanometers) to in vivo toxicity (meters). Through feature learning—instead of feature engineering—deep neural networks promise to outperform both traditional physics-based and knowledge-based machine learning models for predicting molecular properties pertinent to drug discovery. To this end, we present the PotentialNet family of graph convolutions. These models are specifically designed for and achieve state-of-the-art performance for protein–ligand binding affinity. We further validate these deep neural networks by setting new standards of performance in several ligand-based tasks. In parallel, we introduce a new metric, the Regression Enrichment Factor EFχ(R), to measure the early enrichment of computational models for chemical data. Finally, we introduce a cross-validation strategy based on structural homology clustering that can more accurately measure model generalizability, which crucially distinguishes the aims of machine learning for drug discovery from standard machine learning tasks.

MSMBuilder is a software package for building statistical models of high-dimensional time-series data. It is designed with a particular focus on the analysis of atomistic simulations of biomolecular dynamics such as protein folding and conformational change. MSMBuilder is named for its ability to construct Markov state models (MSMs), a class of models that has gained favor among computational biophysicists. In addition to both well-established and newer MSM methods, the package includes complementary algorithms for understanding time-series data such as hidden Markov models and time-structure based independent component analysis. MSMBuilder boasts an easy to use command-line interface, as well as clear and consistent abstractions through its Python application programming interface. MSMBuilder was developed with careful consideration for compatibility with the broader machine learning community by following the design of scikit-learn. The package is used primarily by practitioners of molecular dynamics, but is just as applicable to other computational or experimental time-series measurements.

Coarse graining enables the investigation of molecular dynamics for larger systems and at longer timescales than is possible at an atomic resolution. However, a coarse graining model must be formulated such that the conclusions we draw from it are consistent with the conclusions we would draw from a model at a finer level of detail. It has been proved that a force matching scheme defines a thermodynamically consistent coarse-grained model for an atomistic system in the variational limit. Wang et al. [ACS Cent. Sci. 5, 755 (2019)] demonstrated that the existence of such a variational limit enables the use of a supervised machine learning framework to generate a coarse-grained force field, which can then be used for simulation in the coarse-grained space. Their framework, however, requires the manual input of molecular features to machine learn the force field. In the present contribution, we build upon the advance of Wang et al. and introduce a hybrid architecture for the machine learning of coarse-grained force fields that learn their own features via a subnetwork that leverages continuous filter convolutions on a graph neural network architecture. We demonstrate that this framework succeeds at reproducing the thermodynamics for small biomolecular systems. Since the learned molecular representations are inherently transferable, the architecture presented here sets the stage for the development of machine-learned, coarse-grained force fields that are transferable across molecular systems.

Unsupervised learning is becoming an essential tool to analyze the increasingly large amounts of data produced by atomistic and molecular simulations, in material science, solid state physics, biophysics, and biochemistry. In this Review, we provide a comprehensive overview of the methods of unsupervised learning that have been most commonly used to investigate simulation data and indicate likely directions for further developments in the field. In particular, we discuss feature representation of molecular systems and present state-of-the-art algorithms of dimensionality reduction , density estimation , and clustering , and kinetic models . We divide our discussion into self-contained sections, each discussing a specific method. In each section, we briefly touch upon the mathematical and algorithmic foundations of the method, highlight its strengths and limitations, and describe the specific ways in which it has been used-or can be used-to analyze molecular simulation data.

Often the analysis of time-dependent chemical and biophysical systems produces high-dimensional time-series data for which it can be difficult to interpret which individual features are most salient. While recent work from our group and others has demonstrated the utility of time-lagged covariate models to study such systems, linearity assumptions can limit the compression of inherently nonlinear dynamics into just a few characteristic components. Recent work in the field of deep learning has led to the development of the variational autoencoder (VAE), which is able to compress complex datasets into simpler manifolds. We present the use of a time-lagged VAE, or variational dynamics encoder (VDE), to reduce complex, nonlinear processes to a single embedding with high fidelity to the underlying dynamics. We demonstrate how the VDE is able to capture nontrivial dynamics in a variety of examples, including Brownian dynamics and atomistic protein folding. Additionally, we demonstrate a method for analyzing the VDE model, inspired by saliency mapping, to determine what features are selected by the VDE model to describe dynamics. The VDE presents an important step in applying techniques from deep learning to more accurately model and interpret complex biophysics.

As molecular dynamics simulations access increasingly longer time scales, complementary advances in the analysis of biomolecular time-series data are necessary. Markov state models offer a powerful framework for this analysis by describing a system's states and the transitions between them. A recently established variational theorem for Markov state models now enables modelers to systematically determine the best way to describe a system's dynamics. In the context of the variational theorem, we analyze ultra-long folding simulations for a canonical set of twelve proteins [K. Lindorff-Larsen et al., Science 334, 517 (2011)] by creating and evaluating many types of Markov state models. We present a set of guidelines for constructing Markov state models of protein folding; namely, we recommend the use of cross-validation and a kinetically motivated dimensionality reduction step for improved descriptions of folding dynamics. We also warn that precise kinetics predictions rely on the features chosen to describe the system and pose the description of kinetic uncertainty across ensembles of models as an open issue. Published by AIP Publishing. [http://dx

Reaction coordinates are widely used throughout chemical physics to model and understand complex chemical transformations. We introduce a definition of the natural reaction coordinate, suitable for condensed phase and biomolecular systems, as a maximally predictive one-dimensional projection. We then show that this criterion is uniquely satisfied by a dominant eigenfunction of an integral operator associated with the ensemble dynamics. We present a new sparse estimator for these eigenfunctions which can search through a large candidate pool of structural order parameters and build simple, interpretable approximations that employ only a small number of these order parameters. Example applications with a small molecule's rotational dynamics and simulations of protein conformational change and folding show that this approach can filter through statistical noise to identify simple reaction coordinates from complex dynamics.