Knowing where species occur is fundamental to many ecological and environmental applications. Species distribution models (SDMs) are typically based on correlations between species occurrence data and environmental predictors, with ecological processes captured only implicitly. However, there is a growing interest in approaches that explicitly model processes such as physiology, dispersal, demography and biotic interactions. These models are believed to offer more robust predictions, particularly when extrapolating to novel conditions. Many process–explicit approaches are now available, but it is not clear how we can best draw on this expanded modelling toolbox to address ecological problems and inform management decisions. Here, we review a range of process–explicit models to determine their strengths and limitations, as well as their current use. Focusing on four common applications of SDMs – regulatory planning, extinction risk, climate refugia and invasive species – we then explore which models best meet management needs. We identify barriers to more widespread and effective use of process‐explicit models and outline how these might be overcome. As well as technical and data challenges, there is a pressing need for more thorough evaluation of model predictions to guide investment in method development and ensure the promise of these new approaches is fully realised.
Invasive and over-abundant predators pose a major threat to biodiversity and often benefit from human activities. Effective management requires understanding predator use of human-modified habitats (including resource subsidies and disturbed environments), and individual variation within populations. We investigated selection for human-modified habitats by invasive red foxes, Vulpes vulpes, within two predominantly forested Australian landscapes. We predicted that foxes would select for human-modified habitats in their range locations and fine-scale movements, but that selection would vary between individuals. We GPS-tracked 19 foxes for 17–166 days; ranges covered 33 to >2500 ha. Approximately half the foxes selected for human-modified habitats at the range scale, with some ‘commuting’ more than five kilometres to farmland or townships at night. Two foxes used burnt forest intensively after a prescribed fire. In their fine-scale nocturnal movements, most foxes selected for human-modified habitats such as reservoirs, forest edges and roads, but there was considerable individual variation. Native fauna in fragmented and disturbed habitats are likely to be exposed to high rates of fox predation, and anthropogenic food resources may subsidise fox populations within the forest interior. Coordinating fox control across land-tenures, targeting specific landscape features, and limiting fox access to anthropogenic resources will be important for biodiversity conservation.
Inappropriate fire regimes and predation by introduced species each pose a major threat to Australia’s native mammals. They also potentially interact, an issue that is likely to be contributing to the ongoing collapse of native mammal communities across Australia. In the present review, I first describe the mechanisms through which fire could create predation pinch points, exacerbating the impacts of predators, including red foxes, Vulpes vulpes, and feral cats, Felis catus, on their native mammalian prey. These mechanisms include a localised increase in predator activity (a numerically mediated pathway) and higher predator hunting success after fire (a functionally moderated pathway), which could both increase native mammal mortality and limit population recovery in fire-affected landscapes. Evidence for such interactions is growing, although largely based on unreplicated experiments. Improving native mammal resilience to fire in predator-invaded landscapes requires addressing two key questions: how can the impacts of introduced predators on native mammals in fire-affected areas be reduced; and, does a reduction in predation by introduced species result in higher native mammal survival and population recovery after fire? I then examine potential management options for reducing predator impacts post-fire. The most feasible are landscape-scale predator control and the manipulation of fire regimes to create patchy fire scars. However, robust field experiments with adequate statistical power are required to assess the effectiveness of these approaches and preclude null (e.g. compensatory mortality) or adverse (e.g. mesopredator or competitor release) outcomes. Ongoing predator management and prescribed burning programs provide an opportunity to learn through replicated natural experiments as well as experimental manipulations. Standardised reporting protocols and cross-jurisdiction monitoring programs would help achieve necessary spatial and environmental replication, while multi-trophic, spatially explicit simulation models could help synthesise findings from disparate study designs, predict management outcomes and generate new hypotheses. Such approaches will be key to improving management of the complex mechanisms that drive threatened native mammal populations in Australia’s predator-invaded, fire-prone landscapes.
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