Many of the world's refugees remain in Africa, where they stay long-term, mainly in neighboring countries. The present directions point to integration, in which the host society and the political surroundings play a key role. This paper aims to investigate the ways in which public opinion towards and contact with refugees support integration processes. We apply this research to a settlement setting in rural Zambia, a recent dataset of 275 households from 2018, and an econometric analysis. This is the first study dealing with a set of factors that affect the hosts’ opinion towards and contact with refugees in an African settlement context, and with respect to the Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework produced by the United Nations. Our results show, particularly, the religiosity, group membership, life satisfaction, food insecurity, agricultural ownership and natural resource uses of the host society to be the main factors that need policy consideration for the promotion of refugee integration. Stakeholders dealing in host–refugee settings and seeking for durable solutions should roll out community programs to address threat perceptions and interaction improvements.
Background At the center of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) by the United Nations is climate change. Analyzing adaptation processes is fundamental to enhance resilience in the poorest parts of the world. The analysis harmonizes top-down and bottom-up approaches by integrating general circulation models into the method of mathematical optimization. The article designs a quantitative farm planning model for rural Zambia and focuses on optimal allocation of land, labor and cultivation methods. Our research takes advantage of recent survey data of 277 Zambian households from 2018. The model simulates a baseline scenario, 2 climate change scenarios and 7 variations of farmers’ land availability, labor capacity and off-farm work possibility. This results in 21 possible future outcomes and farmer adaptations. Results Climate change negatively affects future livelihoods at the study site. A dry climate decreases a farmer’s wealth by around 30% and a wet climate by nearly 20%. However, simulations show households are able to sustain their livelihood through adaptation processes at the farm level. Farmers’ variation in land size for crop cultivation indicates the strongest livelihood impacts in response to climate change. Increasing the land for cultivation is the best response, whereas a reduction of labor supply at the farm leads to households being more vulnerable to a changing climate. Off-farm employments reveal significant potential for climate change adaptation. An increase in work opportunities at a refugee camp nearby has a significant positive effect on rural livelihoods, without reducing the households’ farm production. The refugee camp, however, may imply future land competition. Conclusions The study concludes climate change has a serious impact on farm yields and requires land and labor adjustments to prevent losses in wealth. Altering the cropping mix, reallocating planting times or changing farming techniques are meaningful instruments to respond to climate change at the study site. Agricultural intensification can increase the productivity per hectare and the mix of on- and off-farm work indicates income diversification as possible response to climate change. The analysis is specified to a rural farm context in Zambia, but is applicable to similar settings in sub-Saharan Africa and useful for local policy implementations towards climate change adaptation.
PurposeThis article aims to investigate the impact of (1) the establishment of a refugee settlement, (2) the energy demand of a host and refugee population, (3) the residence time of refugees and (4) interventions in the energy sector on sustainable utilization of the forest.Design/methodology/approachRefugee movements from the Democratic Republic of Congo and settlement construction in a Zambian host society provide the setting. An agent-based model is developed. It uses survey data from 277 Zambian households, geographic information system coordinates and supplementary data inputs.FindingsThe future forest stock remains up to 30 years without an influx of refugees. Refugee developments completely deplete the forest over time. The settlement construction severely impacts the forest, while refugees' energy needs seem less significant. Compared with the repatriation of refugees, permanent integration has no influential impact on forest resources. Interventions in the energy sector through alternative sources slow down deforestation. Once a camp is constructed, tree cutting by hosts causes forest covers to decline even if alternative energy is provided.Practical implicationsThe analysis is useful for comparable host–refugee settings and United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees interventions in settlement situations. Forest and energy sector interventions should involve host and refugee stakeholders.Originality/valueThis article adds value through an agent-based model in the Zambian deforestation–refugee context. The study has a pilot character within the United Nation's Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework. It fills a gap in long-term assessments of refugee presence in local host communities.
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