IMPORTANCE Keratinocyte cancers (KCs), including basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), are the most common cancers among fair-skinned populations worldwide. Although studies have indicated that the anatomical distribution of BCC and SCC differ, few have compared them directly in well-defined population samples. OBJECTIVES To describe and compare the anatomical distribution of BCC and SCC in a population-based sample in Queensland, Australia.
Sunlight is the principal environmental risk factor for keratinocyte cancers, but other carcinogens have also been implicated, including tobacco smoke. Findings have been conflicting, however. We investigated associations between cigarette smoking and incidence of basal cell carcinoma (BCC) or squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) in QSkin, a prospective study of skin cancer (N = 43,794). Smoking history was self-reported at baseline; newly diagnosed BCCs and SCCs were ascertained through data linkage and verified by histopathology reports. We restricted analyses to white participants who at baseline reported no past history of skin cancer excisions and no more than five destructively treated actinic skin lesions. We fitted Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for known confounders. Compared with never smokers, current smokers had significantly lower risks of BCC (hazard ratio = 0.6; 95% confidence interval = 0.4-0.9) but significantly higher risks of SCC (hazard ratio = 2.3; 95% confidence interval = 1.5-3.6). Former smokers had similar risks for BCC and SCC as never smokers. Among smokers, we observed no dose-response trends with duration of smoking, intensity, or time since quitting. On further analysis, current smokers had fewer skin examinations and procedures than never smokers, suggesting greater opportunities for detection among never smokers. Strengths include large sample size, prospective design, and virtually complete follow-up; however, histologic details were missing for a proportion of excised tumors. In conclusion, current smokers had a lower incidence of BCC (possibly because of detection bias) but higher rates of SCC.
Such a tool could be used to target surveillance activities to those at highest predicted risk of developing melanoma over a median duration of 3.4 years.
Basal cell and squamous cell carcinomas of the skin are the commonest cancers in humans, yet no validated tools exist to estimate future risks of developing keratinocyte carcinomas. To develop a prediction tool, we used baseline data from a prospective cohort study (n = 38,726) in Queensland, Australia, and used data linkage to capture all surgically excised keratinocyte carcinomas arising within the cohort. Predictive factors were identified through stepwise logistic regression models. In secondary analyses, we derived separate models within strata of prior skin cancer history, age, and sex. The primary model included terms for 10 items. Factors with the strongest effects were >20 prior skin cancers excised (odds ratio 8.57, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 6.73-10.91), >50 skin lesions destroyed (odds ratio 3.37, 95% CI 2.85-3.99), age ≥ 70 years (odds ratio 3.47, 95% CI 2.53-4.77), and fair skin color (odds ratio 1.75, 95% CI 1.42-2.15). Discrimination in the validation dataset was high (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve 0.80, 95% CI 0.79-0.81) and the model appeared well calibrated. Among those reporting no prior history of skin cancer, a similar model with 10 factors predicted keratinocyte carcinoma events with reasonable discrimination (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve 0.72, 95% CI 0.70-0.75). Algorithms using self-reported patient data have high accuracy for predicting risks of keratinocyte carcinomas.
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