BackgroundQinghai Lake in central China has been at the center of debate on whether wild birds play a role in circulation of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1. In 2005, an unprecedented epizootic at Qinghai Lake killed more than 6000 migratory birds including over 3000 bar-headed geese (Anser indicus). H5N1 subsequently spread to Europe and Africa, and in following years has re-emerged in wild birds along the Central Asia flyway several times.Methodology/Principal FindingsTo better understand the potential involvement of wild birds in the spread of H5N1, we studied the movements of bar-headed geese marked with GPS satellite transmitters at Qinghai Lake in relation to virus outbreaks and disease risk factors. We discovered a previously undocumented migratory pathway between Qinghai Lake and the Lhasa Valley of Tibet where 93% of the 29 marked geese overwintered. From 2003–2009, sixteen outbreaks in poultry or wild birds were confirmed on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and the majority were located within the migratory pathway of the geese. Spatial and temporal concordance between goose movements and three potential H5N1 virus sources (poultry farms, a captive bar-headed goose facility, and H5N1 outbreak locations) indicated ample opportunities existed for virus spillover and infection of migratory geese on the wintering grounds. Their potential as a vector of H5N1 was supported by rapid migration movements of some geese and genetic relatedness of H5N1 virus isolated from geese in Tibet and Qinghai Lake.Conclusions/SignificanceThis is the first study to compare phylogenetics of the virus with spatial ecology of its host, and the combined results suggest that wild birds play a role in the spread of H5N1 in this region. However, the strength of the evidence would be improved with additional sequences from both poultry and wild birds on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau where H5N1 has a clear stronghold.
Beyond organisms experiencing direct impacts (mortality) from the presence of anthropogenic features, interactive relationships may exacerbate the effects of anthropogenic disturbance within the context of these features. For example, mortality risk may be affected by the road infrastructure associated with energy development by influencing space use of predators including human hunters. To assess these relationships, we conducted research on northern bobwhite Colinus virginianus across a hunted and non-hunted area of Beaver River Wildlife Management Area, Oklahoma, using radiotelemetry from 2012-2015. We found that bobwhite mortality risk decreased as the distance from primary roads (m) increased across weeks (hazard ratio [HR] 1.008, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0003 to 1.0013). The interaction between unit (hunted and non-hunted) and distance from primary roads was not significant (HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.999 to 1.001) indicating that hunting pressure was not a likely explanation for the observed decrease in survival related to primary roads. Bobwhite on the hunted unit avoided exposed soil/sparse vegetation ( β -0.01, CI -0.02 to -0.002) and bare ground ( β -0.01, CI -0.02 to -0.002) more than bobwhite on the non-hunted unit, however these were weak relationships. No other differences in bobwhite space use were detected related to hunting. Though we were limited to estimating theoretical rather than empirical amounts of hunting pressure during our study, we were unable to detect any negative compounding effects of anthropogenic development and hunting pressure on bobwhite ecology during the hunting season.
Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 remains a serious concern for both poultry and human health. Wild waterfowl are considered to be the reservoir for low pathogenic avian influenza viruses; however, relatively little is known about their movement ecology in regions where HPAI H5N1 outbreaks regularly occur. We studied movements of the ruddy shelduck (Tadorna ferruginea), a wild migratory waterfowl species that was infected in the 2005 Qinghai Lake outbreak. We defined their migration with Brownian Bridge utilization distribution models and their breeding and wintering grounds with fixed kernel home ranges. We correlated their movements with HPAI H5N1 outbreaks, poultry density, land cover, and latitude in the Central Asian Flyway. Our Akaike Information Criterion analysis indicated that outbreaks were correlated with land cover, latitude, and poultry density. Although shelduck movements were included in the top two models, they were not a top parameter selected in AICc stepwise regression results. However, timing of outbreaks suggested that outbreaks in the flyway began during the winter in poultry with spillover to wild birds during the spring migration. Thus, studies of the movement ecology of wild birds in areas with persistent HPAI H5N1 outbreaks may contribute to understanding their role in transmission of this disease.
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