Uncertainties from sampling biases present challenges to ecologists and evolutionary biologists in understanding species sensitivity to anthropogenic climate change. Here, we synthesize possible impediments that can constrain research to assess present and future seagrass response from climate change. First, our knowledge of seagrass occurrence information is prevalent with biases, gaps and uncertainties that can influence inferences on species response to global change. Second, research on seagrass diversity has been focused on species-level metrics that can be measured with data from the present – but rarely accounting for the shared phylogenetic relationships and evolutionary distinctiveness of species despite species evolved and diversified from shared ancestors. Third, compared to the mass production of species occurrence records, computational tools that can analyze these datasets in a reasonable amount of time are almost non-existent or do not scale well in terms of computer time and memory. These impediments mean that scientists must work with incomplete information and often unrepresentative data to predict how seagrass diversity might change in the future. We discuss these shortfalls and provide a framework for overcoming the impediments and diminishing the knowledge gaps they generate.
Although climate change projections indicate significant threats to terrestrial biodiversity, the effects are much more profound and striking in the marine environment. Here we explore how different facets of locally distinctive α- and β-diversity (changes in spatial composition) of seagrasses will respond to future climate change scenarios across the globe and compare their coverage with the existing network of marine protected areas. By using species distribution modelling and a dated phylogeny, we predict widespread reductions in species’ range sizes that will result in increases in seagrass weighted and phylogenetic endemism. These projected increases of endemism will result in divergent shifts in the spatial composition of β-diversity leading to differentiation in some areas and the homogenization of seagrass communities in other regions. Regardless of the climate scenario, the potential hotspots of these projected shifts in seagrass α- and β-diversity are predicted to occur outside the current network of marine protected areas, providing new priority areas for future conservation planning that incorporate seagrasses. Our findings report responses of species to future climate for a group that is currently under represented in climate change assessments yet crucial in maintaining marine food chains and providing habitat for a wide range of marine biodiversity.
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