.[1] Along >4000 km of the Mississippi River system, we document that climate, land-use change, and river engineering have contributed to statistically significant increases in flooding over the past 100-150 years. Trends were tested using a database of >8 million hydrological measurements. A geospatial database of historical engineering construction was used to quantify the response of flood levels to each unit of engineering infrastructure. Significant climate-and/or land use-driven increases in flow were detected, but the largest and most pervasive contributors to increased flooding on the Mississippi River system were wing dikes and related navigational structures, followed by progressive levee construction. In the area of the 2008 Upper Mississippi flood, for example, about 2 m of the flood crest is linked to navigational and flood-control engineering. Systemwide, large increases in flood levels were documented at locations and at times of wing-dike and levee construction.
The Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS) is a geographically diverse basin extending 10°north temperate latitude that has produced fishes for humans for millennia. During European colonization through the present, the UMRS has been modified to meet multiple demands such as navigation and flood control. Invasive species, notably the common carp, have dominated fisheries in both positive and negative ways. Through time, environmental decline plus reduced economic incentives have degraded opportunities for fishery production. A renewed focus on fisheries in the UMRS may be dawning. Commercial harvest and corresponding economic value of native and non-native species along the river corridor fluctuates but appears to be increasing. Recreational use will depend on access and societal perceptions of the river. Interactions (e.g., disease and invasive species transmission) among fish assemblages within the UMRS, the Great Lakes, and other lakes and rivers are rising. Data collection for fisheries has varied in intensity and contiguousness through time, although resources for research and management may be growing. As fisheries production likely relies on the interconnectivity of fish populations and associated ecosystem processes among river reaches (e.g., between the pooled and unpooled UMRS), specieslevel processes such as genetics, life-history interactions, and migratory behavior need to be placed in the context of broad ecosystem-and landscape-scale restoration. Formal communication among a diverse group of researchers, managers, and public stakeholders crossing geographic and disciplinary boundaries is necessary through peer-reviewed publications, moderated interactions, and the embrace of emerging information technologies.
The goal of this study was to construct a large, data-rich model to test hydrological responses to engineering modifications on over 3200 km of the Mississippi and Lower Missouri Rivers. We compiled model explanatory variables from a geospatial database quantifying construction of all bridges, wing dikes, bendway weirs, levees, artificial meander cutoffs, channel constriction and navigational dams over the past 100-150 years. Response variables were derived from 68 rated and un-rated hydrologic stations in the study area, with responses analysed across a range of discharges from within-channel flows up to moderate floods. Correlation analysis, multiple linear regression and stepwise regression analyses document strong and consistent responses to construction history, both in individual reach-scale models and systemwide. Meander cutoffs are associated with degradation and acceleration of flow that has reduced stages across the full discharge range. Navigational dams on the Upper Mississippi River increased low-flow stages and flood levels to a lesser extent, with little or no post-dam change. One of the strongest signals was the hydrologic response to wing-dike construction, which resulted in large back-water increases in stage upstream of wing dikes and mixed effects downstream, including the overlapping effects of incision and velocity losses. Levees were associated with local flow concentration, overbank storage loss and floodplain conveyance loss depending on reachscale conditions. The results presented here (1) quantify incremental and cumulative hydrologic responses to a range of engineering activities and (2) provide an empirical tool for verifying and assessing hydraulic and other models of river-system change.
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