A number of studies use meteorological records to analyze climate trends and assess the impact of climate change on agricultural yields. While these provide quantitative evidence on climate trends and the likely effects thereof, they incorporate limited qualitative analysis of farmers' perceptions of climate change and/or variability. The present study builds on the quantitative methods used elsewhere to analyze climate trends, and in addition compares local narratives of climate change with evidence found in meteorological records in Zambia. Farmers offer remarkably consistent reports of a rainy season that is growing shorter and less predictable. For some climate parameters-notably, rising average temperature-there is a clear overlap between farmers' observations and patterns found in the meteorological records. However, the data do not support the perception that the rainy season used to begin earlier, and we generally do not detect a reported increase in the frequency of dry spells. Several explanations for these discrepancies are offered. Further, we provide policy recommendations to help farmers adapt to climate change/variability, as well as suggestions to shape future climate change policies, programs, and research in developing countries.

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Non-timber forest products (NTFPs) support livelihoods in rural communities through provision of food, fuel, materials, medicines and income from sales. We estimated the contribution of NTFPs to rural household income in Zambia, and used a two-stage tobit alternative model to identify the factors associated with participation in NTFP markets. NTFPs accounted for 35 per cent of household income for participating households, second only to trading. Human capital variables and the value of assets were found to be significant determinants of both participation in business activities related to NTFPs and the associated household income, and the poor were more dependent on NTFPs than wealthier households. The effect of average rainfall underscores the role that NTFPs play in providing a safety net during periods of low crop yields. Rural development policies should recognize the role played by NTFPs in rural livelihoods and the need to balance welfare improvement and sustainable forest management.The authors would like to acknowledge the role of the Zambia Central Statistics Office in data collection and entry. Margaret Beaver provided substantial contributions to the training of enumerators and data entry personnel. The authors acknowledge financial support from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA) missions in Lusaka. The paper benefitted from the comments of two anonymous reviewers. Any views expressed or remaining errors are solely the responsibility of the authors. 488 Brian P. Mulenga et al.

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Worldwide, climate change is currently recognized as one of the major challenges to increased food production. The agriculture sector is the main source of livelihoods, growth and foreign exchange earnings in many developing countries including Zambia. However, it is also a sector that is mostly vulnerable to effects of climate change. Smallholder farmers in Zambia have been adopting agricultural related adaptation strategies including minimum tillage and crop rotation to mitigate effects of climate change. There has been contentious debate on whether the two strategies (that are elements of conservation farming) increase crop yields and incomes. Available literature heavily relies on biophysical experiments and show contradictions in the ability of these strategies to improve crop yields. Taking cognizance of the differences in socioeconomic circumstances of the farmers, the purpose of this study was to estimate the impact of minimum tillage and crop rotation on maize yields and incomes for farmers adopting the strategies. The study used cross sectional data collected in 2012/13 from 1231 households across six districts of Zambia and applied propensity score matching techniques and Heckman's selection estimators to account for observed and unobserved heterogeneity between the adopters and non-adopters. The results showed that about 12 and 19% of the farmers have adopted minimum tillage and crop rotation respectively. The strategies improved on-farm maize productivity by about 26% to 38% for minimum tillage and 21% to 24% for crop rotation. Minimum tillage also improved total household maize production. On the other hand crop rotation did not significantly improve total maize production and gross income from the crop. This could reflect the small proportions of areas allocated to legumes versus the areas subsequently allocated to the maize crop during crop rotation. The impact of crop rotation on the staple maize crop could be boosted by encouraging farmers to increase the areas allocated to legumes. The legumes portfolio in the government sponsored input support programme should be increased. The results from this study generally confirm the potential direct role of agricultural related climate change adaptation strategies in improving crop productivity levels in small holder farming systems.