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letters to nature NATURE | VOL 399 | 10 JUNE 1999 | www.nature.com 579 between 270 and 4,000 ms after target onset) and to ignore changes in the distractor. Failure to respond within a reaction-time window, responding to a change in the distractor or deviating the gaze (monitored with a scleral search coil) by more than 1Њ from the fixation point caused the trial to be aborted without reward. The change in the target and distractors was selected so as to be challenging for the animal. In experiments 1 and 2 the animal correctly completed, on average, 79% of the trials, broke fixation in 11%, might have responded to the distractor stimulus in 6% and responded too early or not at all in 5% of the trials. In Experiment 3 the corresponding values are 78, 13%, 8% and 2%. In none of the three experiments was there a difference between the performances for the two possible targets. Differences between average eye positions during trials where one or the other stimulus was the target were very small, with only an average shift of 0.02Њ in the direction of the shift of position between the stimuli. Only correctly completed trials were considered. Firing rates were determined by computing the average neuronal response across trials for 1,000 ms starting 200 ms after the beginning of the target stimulus movement. Tuning curves. Tuning curves were derived by fitting the responses to the 12 directions presented with gaussian functions: r null þ dirGain ϫ exp ð Ϫ 0:5‫ء‬ðdir Ϫ prefdirÞ 2 =width 2 Þ . The four parameters of a gaussian curve capture the four features of a direction-selective cell: preferred direction ( prefdir), response to the anti-preferred direction (r null ), the directional gain (dirGain; the maximal response modulation) and the selectivity or tuning width (width; the range of directions the neuron responds to).

Habitat degradation and climate change are thought to be altering the distributions and abundances of animals and plants throughout the world, but their combined impacts have not been assessed for any species assemblage. Here we evaluated changes in the distribution sizes and abundances of 46 species of butterflies that approach their northern climatic range margins in Britain-where changes in climate and habitat are opposing forces. These insects might be expected to have responded positively to climate warming over the past 30 years, yet three-quarters of them declined: negative responses to habitat loss have outweighed positive responses to climate warming. Half of the species that were mobile and habitat generalists increased their distribution sites over this period (consistent with a climate explanation), whereas the other generalists and 89% of the habitat specialists declined in distribution size (consistent with habitat limitation). Changes in population abundances closely matched changes in distributions. The dual forces of habitat modification and climate change are likely to cause specialists to decline, leaving biological communities with reduced numbers of species and dominated by mobile and widespread habitat generalists.

Our joint statement suggests three main avenues of effort for the scientific and technological community in supporting human needs, maintaining the environment, and moving toward sustainable human consumption patterns. I want to speak on the second of these-the need to actively generate new knowledge. To do so, we need to change science itself, to go beyond what we already know and expand the world's capacity system for discovering new things.

. (2015) 'Assessing species vulnerability to climate change.', Nature climate change., 5 . pp. 215-225. Further information on publisher's website:http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2448Publisher's copyright statement:Additional information: Use policyThe full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that:• a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in DRO • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders.Please consult the full DRO policy for further details.

BackgroundClimatic change is expected to lead to changes in species' geographical ranges. Adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation require quantitative estimates of the magnitude, direction and rates of these potential changes. Such estimates are of greatest value when they are made for large ensembles of species and for extensive (sub-continental or continental) regions.Methodology/Principal FindingsFor six climate scenarios for 2070–99 changes have been estimated for 431 European breeding bird species using models relating species' distributions in Europe to climate. Mean range centroid potentially shifted 258–882 km in a direction between 341° (NNW) and 45° (NE), depending upon the climate scenario considered. Potential future range extent averaged 72–89% of the present range, and overlapped the present range by an average of 31–53% of the extent of the present range. Even if potential range changes were realised, the average number of species breeding per 50×50 km grid square would decrease by 6·8–23·2%. Many species endemic or near-endemic to Europe have little or no overlap between their present and potential future ranges; such species face an enhanced extinction risk as a consequence of climatic change.Conclusions/SignificanceAlthough many human activities exert pressures upon wildlife, the magnitude of the potential impacts estimated for European breeding birds emphasises the importance of climatic change. The development of adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation in the face of climatic change is an urgent need; such strategies must take into account quantitative evidence of potential climatic change impacts such as is presented here.

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Oxygen-isotope records from Greenland ice cores 1,2 indicate numerous rapid climate¯uctuations during the last glacial period. North Atlantic marine sediment cores show comparable variability in sea surface temperature and the deposition of icerafted debris 3±5 . In contrast, very few continental records of this time period provide the temporal resolution and environmental sensitivity necessary to reveal the extent and effects of these environmental¯uctuations on the continents. Here we present high-resolution geochemical, physical and pollen data from lake sediments in Italy and from a Mediterranean sediment core, linked by a common tephrochronology. Our lacustrine sequence extends to the past 102,000 years. Many of its features correlate well with the Greenland ice-core records, demonstrating that the closely coupled ocean±atmosphere system of the Northern Hemisphere during the last glacial 4 extended its in¯uence at least as far as the central Mediterranean region. Numerous vegetation changes were rapid, frequently occurring in less than 200 years, showing that the terrestrial biosphere participated fully in lastglacial climate variability. Earlier than 65,000 years ago, our record shows more climate¯uctuations than are apparent in the Greenland ice cores. Together, the multi-proxy data from the continental and marine records reveal differences in the seasonal character of climate during successive interstadials, and provide a step towards determining the underlying mechanisms of the centennial±millennial-scale variability.A series of four sediment cores (B, D, J and L) obtained from Lago Grande di Monticchio (408 569 N, 158 359 E, 656 m above sea level), a maar lake in Basilicata, southern Italy, extends to a depth of 72.5 m. Sedimentation rates, estimated from annually laminated sections of a composite of these cores, provide a chronology 6,7 that gives a date of 101.7 kyr ago for the base of the record (Fig. 1). This calendaryear chronology, based solely upon Monticchio sedimentation rates, is independent of palynostratigraphic (that is, pollen-based), marine d 18 O event or ice-core interstadial correlations. It is complemented by a tephrochronology and a series of radioisotopic ages.