Indexes of heart rate variability (HRV) based on linear stochastic models are independent risk factors for arrhythmic death (AD). An index based on a nonlinear deterministic model, a reduction in the point correlation dimension (PD2i), has been shown in both animal and human studies to have a higher sensitivity and specificity for predicting AD. Dimensional reduction subsequent to transient ischemia was examined previously in a simple model system, the intrinsic nervous system of the isolated rabbit heart. The present study presents a new model system in which the higher cerebral centers are blocked chemically (ketamine inhibition of N-methyl-D-aspartate receptors) and the system is perturbed over a longer 15-min interval by continuous hemorrhage. The hypothesis tested was that dimensional reduction would again be evoked, but in association with a more complex relationship between the system variables. The hypothesis was supported, and we interpret the greater response complexity to result from the larger autonomic superstructure attached to the heart. The complexities observed in the nonlinear heartbeat dynamics constitute a new genre of autonomic response, one clearly distinct from a hardwired reflex or a cerebrally determined defensive reaction.
Heart rate variability (HRV) refl ects both cardiac autonomic function and risk of sudden arrhythmic death (AD). Indices of HRV based on linear stochastic models are independent risk factors for AD in postmyocardial infarction (MI) cohorts. Indices based on nonlinear deterministic models have a higher sensitivity and specifi city for predicting AD in retrospective data. A new nonlinear deterministic model, the automated Point Correlation Dimension (PD2i), was prospectively evaluated for prediction of AD. Patients were enrolled (N = 918) in 6 emergency departments (EDs) upon presentation with chest pain and being determined to be at risk of acute MI (AMI) Ͼ7%. Brief digital ECGs (Ͼ1000 heartbeats, ∼15 min) were recorded and automated PD2i results obtained. Out-of-hospital AD was determined by modifi ed Hinkle-Thaler criteria. All-cause mortality at 1 year was 6.2%, with 3.5% being ADs. Of the AD fatalities, 34% were without previous history of MI or diagnosis of AMI. The PD2i prediction of AD had sensitivity = 96%, specifi city = 85%, negative predictive value = 99%, and relative risk Ͼ24.2 (p Յ 0.001). HRV analysis by the time-dependent nonlinear PD2i algorithm can accurately predict risk of AD in an ED cohort and may have both life-saving and resource-saving implications for individual risk assessment.
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