Link to this article: http://journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S1355770X12000290How to cite this article: Behrooz Hassani-Mahmooei and Brett W. Parris (2012). Climate change and internal migration patterns in Bangladesh: an agent-based model. EnvironmentABSTRACT. Bangladesh is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change impacts such as extreme weather events, due to its low-lying topography, high population density and widespread poverty. In this paper, we report on the development and results of an agent-based model of the migration dynamics that may arise in Bangladesh as a result of climate change. The main modules are each calibrated with data on relevant indicators, such as the incidences of extreme poverty, socioeconomic vulnerability, demography, and historical drought, cyclone and flood patterns. The results suggest likely changes in population densities across Bangladesh due to migration from the drought-prone western districts and areas vulnerable to cyclones and floods in the south, towards northern and eastern districts. The model predicts between 3 and 10 million internal migrants over the next 40 years, depending on the severity of the hazards. Some associated policy considerations are also discussed.

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Over the past decade, humanitarian events affected on average 120 million people annually. Whilst many of these events are human-induced, a large number of the 400 or so complex humanitarian emergencies that require international response each year are natural. Such events result in loss of life, injure and maim survivors, destroy infrastructure and give rise to psycho-social trauma. Aid agencies working alongside affected communities must address all these consequences as part of their responses. What is also required though is an appreciation that worldviews will inform how affected communities both understand the cause of the event, their role in the event and how they will subsequently participate in rebuilding or reconstruction programs. Disasters can be affected by religious beliefs. With more than 85% of the global population self-professing religious belief, these worldviews are often shaped in whole or in part by sacred texts, religious teachings and sectarian practices. In this regard, it is not uncommon for those affected by disasters (particularly natural disasters) to genuinely describe these events as 'acts of God'. Effective responses require the local context to be central in assessing needs and determining capacities. This must include an understanding of and authentic engagement with religious beliefs and how this may affect how the humanitarian event interacts with these beliefs. There is though little evidence as to how professional humanitarian workers accommodate the religious beliefs of local populations in their planning, implementation and evaluation of humanitarian responses. This paper draws on the experiences of humanitarian workers based in the USA and Australia from both faith-based and secular international non-governmental organizations to consider both how these workers themselves accommodate the religious views of affected communities in their responses and also their experience as to how such views affect the effectiveness of responses. This paper will consider why aid agencies must incorporate (and appreciate) different worldviews around disasters in order to more effectively respond to the needs of communities affected by humanitarian events. It will also identify difficulties and opportunities experienced by individual humanitarian practitioners as well as agencies when working in such environments.

Trust is a dynamic and complex phenomenon and understanding the factors which affect its formation, evolution and disappearance is a critical research issue. It has been shown that trust plays a key role in how human and social capital develop, how economies grow and how societies progress. In this paper, we present an agent-based model of the relations between a dynamic effort allocation system, an evolving trust framework and a reputation module to study how changes in micro-level rent-seeking traits and decisions can shape the emergence of trust across the simulated environment. According to our results, variations in trust are correlated more with the returns to being productive, rather than rent-seeking. In line with previous studies, our model shows that higher than average levels of risk-taking by agents lead to further trust and gains during an interaction, though taken to an extreme, both trust and gain can decline as a result of reckless decisions. We also report on the formation of trust clusters in our model as an emergent phenomenon.

Trust is a dynamic and complex phenomenon and understanding the factors which affect its formation, evolution and disappearance is a critical research issue. It has been shown that trust plays a key role in how human and social capital develop, how economies grow and how societies progress. In this paper, we present an agent-based model of the relations between a dynamic effort allocation system, an evolving trust framework and a reputation module to study how changes in micro-level rent-seeking traits and decisions can shape the emergence of trust across the simulated environment. According to our results, variations in trust are correlated more with the returns to being productive, rather than rent-seeking. In line with previous studies, our model shows that higher than average levels of risk-taking by agents lead to further trust and gains during an interaction, though taken to an extreme, both trust and gain can decline as a result of reckless decisions. We also report on the formation of trust clusters in our model as an emergent phenomenon.